> Since no live virus is even remotely involved in any COVID19 vaccines it has zero relevance here.
Your omnipotent knowledge is inspiring. We have absolutely zero years of experience with RNA based vaccines. We had incidents with vaccines, not of the same kind. Ergo, there's a non zero probability we will have incidents in the future, by any reasonable inference.
> I qualified my original comment with "in most people's living memory" and didn't include the '76 swine flu vaccine because, frankly, I don't think pointing to an issue that happened 44 years ago in a field that has seen pretty significant technological advancement in knowledge, methods, and manufacturing processes really makes sense.
That's really painting a target where your arrow landed. Most people's living memory does not include e.g. the 1918 pandemic or the bubonic plague, or atomic bombs, or thousands of other things we're proactively defending against and of which we have better understanding but are still an issue. If "living memory" is your criterion ... well, I wouldn't describe it as anything but completely arbitrary.
Within living memory you have totally understandable and preventable things like Fukushima, the nestle mother milk fiasco in Africa, and others. We had enough understanding to stop all of them, and yet they happened. Every single SARS-COV-2 vaccine manufacturer has gotten government immunity from future claims, which aligns their incentive differently compared to vaccines they have produced in the past. They have become too big/important to sue - much like e.g. the fukushima reactor operator. Given this distinctly different incentive structure, rushed schedule, novel RNA delivery system - your belief that the past is a good predictor of the future is unscientific (at the very least, unbayesian without a ton of nontrivial priors you don't bother stating).
> And both those risks are, of course, many orders of magnitude less than your chance of suffering long-term effects from catching COVID19.
Ah, about that. Do you have any actual data about that? Because the best summary of "long covid" evidence I found was written by an MD, is summarized here[0], and can further be summarized by the word "lacking". I spent a lot of time looking for actual data about long covid (not anecdotes), and this summary is better than what I was able to find myself (but I do urge you to read it - do introduce it to your "living memory").
Your omnipotent knowledge is inspiring. We have absolutely zero years of experience with RNA based vaccines. We had incidents with vaccines, not of the same kind. Ergo, there's a non zero probability we will have incidents in the future, by any reasonable inference.
> I qualified my original comment with "in most people's living memory" and didn't include the '76 swine flu vaccine because, frankly, I don't think pointing to an issue that happened 44 years ago in a field that has seen pretty significant technological advancement in knowledge, methods, and manufacturing processes really makes sense.
That's really painting a target where your arrow landed. Most people's living memory does not include e.g. the 1918 pandemic or the bubonic plague, or atomic bombs, or thousands of other things we're proactively defending against and of which we have better understanding but are still an issue. If "living memory" is your criterion ... well, I wouldn't describe it as anything but completely arbitrary.
Within living memory you have totally understandable and preventable things like Fukushima, the nestle mother milk fiasco in Africa, and others. We had enough understanding to stop all of them, and yet they happened. Every single SARS-COV-2 vaccine manufacturer has gotten government immunity from future claims, which aligns their incentive differently compared to vaccines they have produced in the past. They have become too big/important to sue - much like e.g. the fukushima reactor operator. Given this distinctly different incentive structure, rushed schedule, novel RNA delivery system - your belief that the past is a good predictor of the future is unscientific (at the very least, unbayesian without a ton of nontrivial priors you don't bother stating).
> And both those risks are, of course, many orders of magnitude less than your chance of suffering long-term effects from catching COVID19.
Ah, about that. Do you have any actual data about that? Because the best summary of "long covid" evidence I found was written by an MD, is summarized here[0], and can further be summarized by the word "lacking". I spent a lot of time looking for actual data about long covid (not anecdotes), and this summary is better than what I was able to find myself (but I do urge you to read it - do introduce it to your "living memory").
[0] https://sebastianrushworth.com/2020/11/17/what-is-long-covid...