If HN supported DLCs[1], I'd take the under on such a bet. The Apple Silicon DevKit which these guys have had access to since the summer didn't support virtualization (being based on the A12 SoC) but they knew that going in. I'd like to think they got some meaningful work done.
Apple showed Debian running on a prototype Apple Silicon Mac back in June at WWDC. I’d bet they’ll have something before the end of the year.