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Benford's Law: Fraud Detection (wikipedia.org)
13 points by tosh on Nov 6, 2020 | hide | past | favorite | 2 comments



This response to the article cited from Political Analysis (Deckert et al.) is interesting:

https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/political-analysis/a...


Speaking of which, does anyone know where I can download up-to-date precinct level data for GA, AZ and PA? One of the leading indicators of fraud during vote tallies in Russia (where 100% of the elections are falsified) is _rounding_ to the nearest 5%, and in some locations (such as Chechnya and Dagestan) to 99% at the polling place level for the "preferred" candidate or outcome. If you plot the histogram of percentages, this results in spikes at 5% intervals for the "preferred" candidate and troughs for the rest, in the same locations. Eliminating such peaks would require a lot of coordination, and nobody bothers with that since everyone knows what's up.

If such data can't be downloaded, that'd seem like a major oversight, which must be rectified through legislation. If such legislation is not taken up by Congress, that'd be pretty damning in itself.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2020/07/03/data-scientist-cla...




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