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He's raised it to this year!

>“It’s almost getting to a point where I can go from my house to work with no interventions, despite going through construction and widely varying situations,” he said.

>“So this is why I’m very confident about full self-driving functionality being complete by the end of this year. It’s because I’m literally driving it.”

Though reading that it sounds more like the car can drive from A to B on it's own sometimes rather than with any reliability.



I think there's a conflict in what "self driving car" means.

I think many users imagine being chauffered around while they read a tablet, potentially not even needing a drivers license.

Meanwhile I think realists and Elon Musk expect a car that is doing most of the menial parts of driving while a licensed human driver is still hands on but not doing much work.

We're close to that realist scenario in many ways for some areas - though I'm sure we'll see a spike in tragedies once it first goes out and people attempt to treat it like scenario one.

Scenario one is a very long ways away from being universal.


You call them realists, I call them misleading marketers.

The term to use is driverless. Gives the correct idea of what users imagine. All thsi "self-driving" or FSD is just driver assistance given more capability with no regards to safety.


In his intro speech of the Model 3, specifically talking about the FSD he was selling, he talked about something like "one day you could sleep while your car ...". I don't remember the exact quote, but it was something along those lines. Tying it very closely (albeit in some indefinite future) to the product he was selling. He's not a "realist" or "skeptic" in any way.


I used the word "and" there intentionally.


I think Musk thinks the "self driving" will improve as time goes on until it's better than human driving. Which I can see happening but his time scale seems unrealistic. Don't think we'll see a million robotaxis for a while.


Weasel words about "functionality" instead of cars.

We've had self-driving train and airplane functionality for years. Meanwhile self-driving trains and planes are not closer.


Well planes maybe. You've been able to get on a driverless train for nearly 40 years now eg https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Port_Island_Line


For whatever reason, self-driving trains have been in a perpetual "testing" phase for many decades.




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