lol what? i'm sorry but this is IMO A really unrealistic and way too optimistic take. if you look at the trajectories there is no happy hand holding here at the end. both countries cooperate so much as to benefit each other for the time being, but make no mistake they are gunning to be and keep #1.
it's not an overreaction to say that the CCP has been undermining other countries for decades to gain the upperhand. whether that's "justified" is up for debate, but they do what they can to advance their country.
and we're already written off in ways like you mentioned when the US makes world news. the nationalism isn't just some reaction by their citizens to unfairness, it's 100% cultivated by their gov't on purpose.
I think saying that "they are both gunning to be #1" and "undermining other countries" is more of a projection than reality. Yanis Varoufakis, former Minister of Finance of Greece, who has participated in the Belt and Road Initiative, makes it quite clear that China is "non-interventionist to the point where we can't imagine it": https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9tJatdtv4jQ
The current trajectory of sinophobia based on incorrect, overblown and unrealistic readings of CCP, indeed does not have a happy ending. That's why the trajectory should be changed.
> the nationalism isn't just some reaction by their citizens to unfairness, it's 100% cultivated by their gov't on purpose.
I'm sorry, try talking to large number of mainland Chinese people first, they'll disagree with you. Blaming everything on "but Chinese people are brainwashed" is just an attempt to deny reality.
You have an extreme view of the CCP's brainwashing capabilities. If they're that good at brainwashing, they would have eradicated many more down-to-earth societal problems a long time ago, such as the societal disdain for vocational jobs. They've been trying to get rid of the social stigma of vocational schools for years now, in order to prevent the job market from being crowded out by too many university graduates, but they've only had limited success.
Try watching some actual Chinese propaganda for a while. You'll see that it's very primitive, not very convincing, and frankly quite bad. I don't know why everybody keeps thinking they're brainwashing masters without even having looked at all the materials.
>China is "non-interventionist to the point where we can't imagine it"
There are territorial, sovereignty or security issues with Mongolia/Inner Mongolia, Japan, Taiwan, S. Korea/N. Korea, Hong Kong, Vietnam, Philippines, Brunei, Malaysia, India, Nepal, Tibet and Xinjiang.
There are other countries in the region which have additional issues.
I mean you're misrepresenting what I said. I'm not handwaving away what they say as brainwashing. I'm just saying that the gov't has an inordinate effect of influence on their population. I don't view propaganda as a gov't drone on the TV telling you what to do ala NK, but just like the US, it's this permeating effect in the media and culture.
I don't think every Chinese person thinks exactly the same way. But if you just look at the effects, they have a way of stirring nationalism that we do not have. Trump tried so hard to do the "China Virus" thing and look where that got him. And it's disingenuous to suggest because they can't hand wave away social problems inside the country that they somehow have "weak" influence. It's not an all or nothing.
I'm curious what you're readings are on things softer things like the NBA ban over the tweet, things like ban on Korea products over THAAD (less off an over-reaction, but still), arm twisting Chinese/Korean actors/stars to support their worldview (see BTS stuff going on), Blizzard, etc. I can point to l0s of other examples where it is indeed an "over-reaction" on their part. This isn't even scratching the surface of their harder initiatives like in Africa.
The "trajectory changing" as you mention is basically the rest of the world submitting to how China sees the world. And to be honest, I don't think that's "unfair" or anything, it's what they do as a country in position of power. It's also a cultural thing, pride, etc. (my personal opinion on this as well). I'm ethnically Chinese so yeah, I understand the mindset to some extent.
I think the Chinese govt sometimes does overreact. Banning people/companies over tweets, urgh. But whereas many westerners view this as a morality/value issue ("censorship bad") I see this as clumsiness, and generally being bad at understanding western perspectives. The way they behave wrt public communications is not in their best interest. They can get what they want without triggering so much outrage.
With regards to nationalism, it's true that it's not an all or nothing thing. In general however, I think that many people overestimate the amount of nationalism that they deliberately stir up, as opposed to nationalism that was already there. I think the western understanding of the CCP vastly underestimates the legitimacy that they enjoy, and where that legitimacy comes from. The CCP owes its very legitimacy to nationalism: people chose the CCP over the KMT because the KMT was corrupt and incompetent, and they expect the CCP to do a better job, "or else".
With regards to how China views the world vs how the west does, I'm hoping that China and the west can move towards each other, rather than it manifesting as a conflict. There is both value and problems in both the western and the Chinese viewpoints. They should understand and learn from each other.
"it's not an overreaction to say that the CCP has been undermining other countries for decades to gain the upperhand"
That is most certainly an overreaction. One based on projecting the current situation backwards in time. China has been engaging in foreign intervention to widen its influence for, at most, 10 years. 20 years ago, China's GDP was 12% that of the US (hell, Japan's GDP was 4x larger than China then). 30 years ago, it's GDP was just 6% that of the US. China was simply too damn poor to have much global influence. Even today, China's per capita GDP is on par with Mexico, not any developed nation -- it's just a lot lot bigger.
More to the point, its various infrastructure/resource extraction projects are still quite minor in comparison to the existing US/European ones. China has a handful of military/pseudo-military bases outside its borders. The US has bases in dozens of nations.
From a western governmental perspective, the general "problem" with spreading Chinese influence in developing nations is simply that they are not part of the western (read US) hegemony. This is something the modern era has never seen before. Over 100 hundred years of western nations/cultures being without rival is nearing its end and this scares many people in the west. Which is fair enough, the power/influence game is zero-sum, after all.
From western ethical perspective, the problem is that China tends to not give a damn what the governments they ally with do. They seem to have specific goals and outside of those, they don't care. For good or for ill. This strikes some people in the west as unethical. Many westerners seem to feel that other people's would be better off if they adopt western morality. But at the same time, other westerners feel that the west should leave other nations alone -- except when the Chinese behave that way, of course.
All that said, projecting your feelings forward may be more appropriate, IMO. The rivalry between the US (aka "the west") is only going to increase as the Chinese economy (and thus foreign influence) grows. This is mostly based, IMO, on US insecurity about losing its dominant position. But, currently, and for the next decade or two, the US still overshadows China by a huge margin.
it's not an overreaction to say that the CCP has been undermining other countries for decades to gain the upperhand. whether that's "justified" is up for debate, but they do what they can to advance their country.
and we're already written off in ways like you mentioned when the US makes world news. the nationalism isn't just some reaction by their citizens to unfairness, it's 100% cultivated by their gov't on purpose.