If there was sufficient data to assign a 0% or 100% probability to an event, tha...

shajznnckfke on Oct 25, 2020 | parent | context | favorite | on: Reverse-engineering the problematic tail behavior ...

If there was sufficient data to assign a 0% or 100% probability to an event, that’s what a forecaster should do. If there isn’t sufficient data, then anyone who claims there is a sure thing is a charlatan.