On: Reverse-engineering the problematic tail behavior of Fivethirtyeight forecast

[happytoexplain]

That's a pretty bold claim to make about essentially anybody in regards to the US presidential election. Not that I don't believe his account is even-handed and valuable, just that I'm curious what makes you say he has no dog in the fight.

[chki → happytoexplain]

I think he is not talking about the election in general but referencing the "fight" between the 538 model/Nate Silver vs. the Economist/Andre Gelman.

[jsnell → chki]

Correct.