You seem to be deliberately avoiding my point. The fact that some complicated models are wrong is irrelevant. The fact that you've worked with lots of complicated wrong models is irrelevant. The rational default assumption for a lay person, when the experts say that their complicated model agrees with the simplified model which can be explained to the lay person, is to tend to accept what those experts say. It makes no sense to go from "I understand the grade school science behind climate change" to "but those experts use complicated science, so they're probably wrong".
Yes, the rational default for a lay person is to accept expert consensus. But the question at hand is what weight they should give that consensus. And that weighting should change, depending on the nature of the system being understood. We're talking about credences, not point estimates of beliefs.
