Well the absence of anything is the default, so the burden of proof is on the person making the claim. I had read that somewhere in studying transmissions in NYC where elevators are common. I don’t remember where, it was a while ago.
> Well the absence of anything is the default, so the burden of proof is on the person making the claim.
I'm not sure the concept of "burden of proof" is helpful in a collaborative fact-seeking discussion. It seems more relevant to adversarial debates and trials.
It really depends on what the potential hazards are for the claim being correct versus the claim being incorrect. If the claim is that you can't get it from sharing an elevator, I would say the hazards if that claim is wrong are much greater than if that claim is correct. So, from a risk-management perspective, without any evidence, it's much better to assume that you can get COVID-19 from sharing an elevator until enough evidence accumulates to demonstrate that you can't. If you assume you can, the worst that happens is that you wait for another elevator. But if you assume you can't and you actually can, then you get COVID-19.
If I live in a high-rise, then there are large problems in avoiding elevators that could be worse. If all residents were to use stairs, aside from cardiac difficulties of some, mobility issues, risks of falling when carrying large loads, etc, there’s also going to be great amounts of aerosols generated by the huffing and puffing of many people using the stairs all day long (possibly in close proximity for multiple people going up at the same time). This could be a far larger vector as you’d be in the stairwell longer than you’d be in an elevator (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/php/public-health-... suggests 15 minutes of exposure needed).
It’s not clear that “avoid elevators” is universally less harmful. Also given the 15 minutes suggested it’s not clear that elevators by default pose a risk, and the large numbers in use in the world make it surprising if they are indeed a major vector but are otherwise undocumented or not part of suggested guidelines thus far.
I’m asking for evidence which shows they are indeed a risk factor, which should also hopefully take into consideration mask usage and number of stories. This would be extremely useful for people to factor in if they need to move, for example.
A recent article in the Emerging Infectious Diseases Journal details how a large COVID-19 outbreak in China was traced back to one asymptomatic individual who infected a neighbor when they used the same elevator in their apartment building — though they were not in the elevator at the same time.
There is a lot of evidence that close quarters, inside contact is very risky for transmission; every country in the world is operating under that assumption, indeed most are passing laws based on this. There is zero reason to believe that elevators ... both close quarters and inside would some how be an exception.
You've claimed that elevators are an exception to the established guidelines without evidence and are now claiming that that other, well evidenced, claim some how needs additional support to be applied to elevators.
