On: The best way to exercise self-control is not to exercise it at all

[zipwitch]

Here's a small piece on a few of Scott Adams' predictions, discussing how they weren't anything special: http://helvegr.com/2018/09/29/lets-score-the-accuracy-of-sco...

Before he pegged my personal BS meter and I just started ignoring anything from him that I happened across, I noticed that Adams seemd fond of a lot of "cold-reader" type tricks: vagueness that can be turned into specifics after the fact, ignoring their own failures while hyping their successes, that kind of thing.

If you want to see what actual serious prediction attempts look like, search for Nate Silver or Nassim Taleb.

[war1025 → zipwitch]

> search for Nate Silver or Nassim Taleb

They've both had their moments where they got a bit too full of themselves as well. Taleb in particular.

I checked back recently and it seems they've both come back down out of the clouds, but I don't hold either of them in as high of regard as I did a few years ago.