I wouldn't be surprised to see the 13/14 and the 16 inch both released this year.
That would mean 2 significantly different 16" MBPs in the same year. My thinking here is that it would be quite odd if they released a 14" MacBook Pro which is faster than the more expensive current 16" model.
The 16" was just refreshed and requires both a very beefy cpu and gpu. Not sure Apple will bring that with the first iteration. The 13" MB Pro has an integrated GPU, so that sounds more like a first step for Apple. Also, I think the Intel version of the 16" will stick around for quite a long time, might even be the last Intel machine sold in parallel to Apple Silicon, as developers and many others might require an Intel-based machine.
How can Apple say their new CPUs are the best/ fastest... but aren't good enough to ship in their flagship laptop?
This first launch is going to be the most scrutinized & criticized Mac Apple has launched in years. Apple knows this and they are going to put a beefy CPU in their new machine to silence the critics. If they can't beat Intel performance at launch, what are the chances they are going to be able to beat them a year down the line?
And since it would be quite weird to have the smaller MacBook be the better/ faster iOS development machine, it seems like the 16" is pretty likely. Maybe not launch day, but within the first few months at the latest.
They might keep the Intel based MacBook around and sell them at the same time, but I doubt it will be the only 16" MacBook they sell for long. It just doesn't make any sense.
That is the reason why I think at least one of the MB Pros will be available on Apple Silicon from the start, I am just not sure they will start with the 16", as they would have to replace a dedicated GPU for that machine.
Because one important feature of the large MB Pro is the availability of a dedicated GPU making it a decent graphics machine when connected to an external screen. I am certainly stressing the GPU of mine :)
My thinking is this is exactly the use-case Apple needs to prove they can compete with and arguably the case where they should shine. With ARM's much better thermal characteristics, Apple should be able to get much better graphics performance.
That would mean 2 significantly different 16" MBPs in the same year. My thinking here is that it would be quite odd if they released a 14" MacBook Pro which is faster than the more expensive current 16" model.