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Assuming the average flight is 1 hour long, that’s a 0.5% chance of dying in 28.5 years of flight time. 0.995^138 is approximately 50%, so the expected amount of time you’d need to spend onboard to have even odds chance of dying due to hull loss is about 4000 years.

There are a lot of factors this analysis doesn’t take into account, particularly the difference in airframe fault rate over time: A new plane will have different reliability figures than a 4000-year old one.



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