I'm a Java developer, but I take issue with your last point:
"Single binaries are overrated. Any app that's widely distributed uses an installer [...]"
That's true once you have the kind of traction where distro maintainers are going to consider packaging it themselves. But to attain that kind of popularity having a stand-alone binary is going to make a huge difference.
Unless you're willing to build all those packages/installers from scratch!
My opinion is between these. A single binary is easier, and the java app deployment could be made better than it is now.
Currently I make an 'uberjar' that includes all java dependencies including Tomcat/Jetty/etc: java -jar my-app.jar
What's annoying is finding the desired JDK/JRE for each OS with the right license and manually installing it. Sometimes having to make some file fixes (e.g. OpenJ9 JDK & Maven compatibility).
"Single binaries are overrated. Any app that's widely distributed uses an installer [...]"
That's true once you have the kind of traction where distro maintainers are going to consider packaging it themselves. But to attain that kind of popularity having a stand-alone binary is going to make a huge difference.
Unless you're willing to build all those packages/installers from scratch!