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ps...check out the mathematic models/programs that play out and distill "variance", the "long term", and 'luck' in poker..It's remarkable stuff.



My first Django project was to create a simple variance simulator for poker (http://www.evplusplus.com/poker_tools/variance_simulator/). The amount of luck involved in poker is truly tough to comprehend.

Becoming a successful poker player not only requires you to be quite skilled, but you also need to run well at the beginning of your career.


Actually not. You didn't understand how luck works. Beeing successful in Poker is more about how you handle the bad streaks when they hit. Because they can hit often and hard. Everybody is running well from time to time.


"You didn't understand how luck works"

I have written quite a bit of poker software and played close to 700k hands of poker over the last 5 years so I understand how luck works better than most.

My point is, that if you imagine 10 hypothetical identical players (they make the same move in the same situations) with $1000 starting bankrolls, all with moderate a positive expectation of 1bb/100 hands many of those players will lose a lot at the beginning, get discouraged and give up playing poker in the first 10-20k hands they play because they ran poorly.

The people who were "lucky" and ran well at the beginning of there careers (like me) have a chance to grow a larger bankroll and will be less likely to go broke in the future as their risk-of-ruin decreases.

This is exactly what the simulator does. It takes identical players, under identical game conditions and looks at possible outcomes. You can see for yourself how wildly different the results can be for a player with a 1bb/100 win rate. (Note: the simulator of course is inherently flawed because games conditions and the mental condition of the player are not accounted for)


> You didn't understand how luck works.

That's a pretty bold statement to make to somebody who built a simulator. Can you point to any specific coding or algorithmic errors?

I think you misunderstood his point, which is that it's easy to burn through your starting bankroll, even if you play well.




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