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Risk of suicide is much higher among handgun owners (stanford.edu)
5 points by chmaynard on June 23, 2020 | hide | past | favorite | 2 comments


There is an element of conflation going here perhaps? The title and article text subtly suggest that long-term firearm ownership is hazardous and provide numbers to back that up. However, note the last sentence of the results from the study itself (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsa1916744)

>"A total of 676,425 cohort members acquired one or more handguns, and 1,457,981 died; 17,894 died by suicide, of which 6691 were suicides by firearm. Rates of suicide by any method were higher among handgun owners, with an adjusted hazard ratio of 3.34 for all male owners as compared with male nonowners (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.13 to 3.56) and 7.16 for female owners as compared with female nonowners (95% CI, 6.22 to 8.24). These rates were driven by much higher rates of suicide by firearm among both male and female handgun owners, with a hazard ratio of 7.82 for men (95% CI, 7.26 to 8.43) and 35.15 for women (95% CI, 29.56 to 41.79). Handgun owners did not have higher rates of suicide by other methods or higher all-cause mortality. The risk of suicide by firearm among handgun owners peaked immediately after the first acquisition, but 52% of all suicides by firearm among handgun owners occurred more than 1 year after acquisition."

To invert that sentence, 48% of suicides by firearm occurred less than 1 year after acquisition. So while the title is correct in a strict sense, unless I'm grossly mistaken, it would seem that the long-term hazard numbers should be something like 52% of the published value.


The study also completely ignores suicide attempts and counts only completed suicides. Of course an attempt is more likely to be "successful" with a firearm than most other means.




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