It's explained in point two. We're talking about large quantities of people here. Technically mask blocks droplets. But if you tell everyone to use a mask, does it reduce transmission on average?
What's your plausible scientific reason that blocking droplets doesn't reduce the chance of spreading the virus? My prior is, it does, based on my experience of the mask getting wet when talking.
Again, I'm not questioning that. Mathematically, does "tell people to use masks" imply "less new cases"? E.g., what if people decide to spend 5x more time with other people on average due to a mask requirement making them feel safe? That could easily cause more cases.
