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Pandemics, Politics, and Beliefs (mebassett.info)
8 points by jfeierabend on May 23, 2020 | hide | past | favorite | 1 comment



This discussion focuses on the least relevant aspects. There are a range of options for mitigating the pandemic. These include distancing, washing of hands and surfaces, masks, antiviral drugs, and vaccines. All of these have some costs and risks associated as well as varying levels of effectiveness.

Lockdowns, quarantines, and shelter in place orders have been tried at various levels of strictness at various time and places so we have a lot of data about their impact on the progress of the pandemic. It is clear that lockdowns are extremely expensive, but also shift risk around. Traffic is greatly reduced, but increased speeding balances out the risks. Avoiding prompt treatment for minor medical problems has as yet unknown risks. Domestic abuse is way up. Where I live shootings and murders are way up. Viewing murder as primarily an economic issue seems a strange way of skewing things.

In any case, while there are a range of beliefs and political relationships these are less relevant and interesting than the actual costs and risks of different forms of mitigation. Early on we feared exponential spreading but at this point we have verified that the pattern of spread was the same everywhere regardless of lockdown or not, and the rate of spread was not only never exponential but in fact fell everywhere it has been measured. This is well established epidemiology: lockdowns are only useful if they can contain the spread of a pathogen. This virus was spread widely by asymptomatic infected people before the first cases were recognized and diagnosed.




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