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Retirement Calculators for Engineers (nesteggly.com)
53 points by yeahgoodok on May 11, 2020 | hide | past | favorite | 23 comments



This is fun to play around with!

A UI request - in testing different scenarios, I want to delete & retype the first digit or two only (what if I want 60000 per year? 75000 per year?) but deleting only the first digit empties the whole text box and I have to type out the zeros every time. Would be great to be able to edit only part of the many long numbers instead of the whole thing.


Thanks for bringing this to my attention. I recently implemented localization of the number formatting and must have introduced this bug then. I'll fix it.


Broken on my iPad,I guess I work another 5 years? It gets to where it wants more info and I watch the wheel of misfortune spin.


Ugh I'm sorry to hear that. I'm presently testing on Chrome, Firefox and Safari on macOS and Windows with no issues. What browser are you using?


Both Chrome and Safari on the iPad


I'm not quite ready to open source this project just yet as I believe I possess some trade secret-level intellectual property. I might be wrong about that, so if anyone can find a calculator that can do what my calculators can do then I'll gladly open it up. That being said this is a 100% client-side app and I'm not collecting anyone's data (other than Google Analytics). I just wanted to share this project here to solicit feedback from smart people and help everyone get a clearer picture of their retirement.


I don't see how you do anything differently than networthify, Personal Capital's Retirement Planner, and everyone else.

In fact, you make the exact same mistakes they do, and more, which are critical ones.


Networthify is missing quite a few features. Namely social security, pensions, annuities, taxes, capital depletion. It makes you internalize everything in your head in real, after-tax terms as if inflation and taxes don't exist. Nesteggly is better in this respect because it gives you a picture of your financial future in actual dollar terms.

Personal Capital's Retirement Planner is quite a bit different too. For one, it's a Monte Carlo simulator. Two, it assumes your retirement income will remain constant for your entire retirement. Third, to use their calculator they make you sign up, link your accounts and endure the harassment of their financial advisors.


You might want to consider providing something that optionally allows you to sign up.

There's a lot of details that are required for increasingly better projections, and sometimes people taking a glance at what your software has to offer might not necessarily have time during their lunch hour or on the weekends to fill everything out.

Yes, Personal Capital targets sub-HNWIs, but realize they run a business, and if they're targeting you, it's also a sign you're probably doing something right.


Stop revealing the features of my premium product before it's released. ;)


cfiresim (http://www.cfiresim.com/) might offer similar functionality you're looking to do, and it's open source.

So if you need a public domain based approach to retirement calculations, you might be able to follow what they are doing.


cfiresim runs simulations. I'm more interested in solving for a specific outcome. I looked into adding my withdrawal strategy to their code but that project has been dead for years.


For work that's been done on withdrawal strategies, see the Safe Withdrawal Rate series at https://earlyretirementnow.com/safe-withdrawal-rate-series/

How does your strategy differ from the many ERN evaluates?


I'm a big fan of that series, mostly because we agree on just about everything. Especially how people tend to get carried away with 'the 4% rule', which is more than a rule-of-thumb than anything.

The thing that's most different about my strategy is that it doesn't have a 'memory' of what your past retirement income was. Put simply, you retire every 3 months. A lot of folks get nervous when I say this but in practice, this is in fact how most people behave.

For example, consider the case of someone who unfortunately retired just before the COVID crash. Strategies that have a 'memory' intrinsically offer some assurance that you'll probably weather the downturn without decreasing your lifestyle very much. In practice, most folks will 'start over' their retirement just to be safe and reset the memory of their prior payments. In my opinion, if you're not going to trust the assurances of a given strategy then what good is it?

Another thing that sets my strategy apart is that it focuses on capital depletion. Most strategies don't have any sort of annuity component and this typically resorts in a binary outcome near the end of the investment horizon -- you're either filthy rich or you went bankrupt years ago (both of these are bad outcomes for me). My strategy is constantly readjusting itself so that you exhaust your savings around 100 years old (or whatever age you set the formula to). This results in better overall effective utilization of savings.

I could go on but those are the two biggest things.


To add another two cents, maybe consider the fact that some people would rather leave a majority of their estate to future generations rather than focus on capital depletion.

I have no intention of burning most of my investments away when I can instead, over a lifetime, teach my children how to manage their resources and insulate them from concerns most others toil away at.

I'd instead rather spend as a little as possible.


Even if you spend as little as possible and intend to leave an inheritance, you still must wonder how much you can safely withdraw from your investments, no? Simply wanting a particular outcome is seldom sufficient to make it so.


Darrow Kirkpatrick has a taxonomy of retirement calculators here: https://www.caniretireyet.com/the-best-retirement-calculator...

These calculators would be in the low fidelity category. He gives examples of others that have higher fidelity.

Bogleheads has a nice list of calculators also: https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Tools_and_calculators The Retiree Portfolio Model is a high fidelity spreadsheet tool that takes some effort to use, but can be well worth it: https://www.bogleheads.org/forum/viewtopic.php?t=97352

One thing that low and medium fidelity calculators could do to provide value is education. These calculators are mostly used by those that are years away from retirement, who are probably younger and could use pointers to topics to learn about that will apply to their situation going forward.

For example, a colleague asked me about backdoor Roth contributions recently as he now makes too much to contribute directly. It turns out he had rolled a 401k into an IRA when the company we worked for was sold 12 years ago. I left it in a 401k and told folks at the time about the rules that might make backdoor Roth contributions uneconomical. I failed to educate properly at that time, and now he's not able to do Roth contributions to save money in the future.

Calculators that grow with you, remembering what you've entered and prompting for only the information needed for the next decision point are also a good idea. If you are targeting engineers, you'll likely grow into a very high fidelity calculator towards retirement, as engineers tend to like to fully understand the nuances of the situation. It may be that your tool creates a spreadsheet that can be downloaded and edited to handle the last 5-10% of the special nuances for that particular individual.

Making data input easier for users to think about is also a good idea. The recently featured on Hacker news https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23069276 calculator has a place where you can enter special future spending. Having a page that you enter your child's age or rough birthday (even future) could make prompting for uneven income and spending like not working, child care, sports and college easier for folks to plan for and enter.

There are many cliffs in the tax code for example. Frugal professor had an old post that shows some of the cliffs before the 2018 tax code changes:

https://frugalprofessor.com/federal-income-tax-calculator-to...

I'd like to see calculators that determine which cliffs folks are likely to be near and educate them about the issues.

The ACA health care subsidy cliff is another important one. Earn $1 too much and your health care costs go from <$100 to $1000+ per month for early retirees.

Getting a balance between tax deferred (traditional IRA, 401k, etc.), tax free (Roth) and taxable savings is also important. You want to be able to withdraw savings from each of these in retirement in a balanced way. https://www.gocurrycracker.com/6-years-of-nearly-income-tax-... has a nice rundown of what they do to minimize taxes.

Why am I talking about taxes so much? The only thing you control in your retirement is the contributions and withdrawals from the various accounts. The market conditions control the returns. Being smart about how you balance your actions to minimize tax drag can be a big boost towards retirement.

Other decisions can also have a big effect your retirement spending. Are you planning on retiring in a state that taxes your social security benefits and capital gains? How much sooner could you retire moving to a state that doesn't tax these?


It's funny you mention FI Calc. We're actually collaborating together to implement my strategy into his calculator. Here's the PR:

https://github.com/jamesplease/fi-calc/pull/197

I totally understand where you're coming from with optimizing for taxes, tax cliffs, etc. Tax law is just so immensely nuanced and fluid. I mean, every state has their own set of crazy rules and these rules change all the time. Even the popular backdoor Roth isn't a sure thing:

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-why-you-may-want-to-...

My calculator takes the Occam's Razor approach to taxes and uses a generic "tax burden" parameter in the assumptions. Someone as savvy as you are would surely be able to keep that parameter lower than others. For most people trying to minimize their tax burden, I think they'd be better served by a financial professional than a calculator. Just my $0.02.


If you're not implementing basic tax calculations, it's child's play. Too many uneducated kids don't realize you can't retire early with a 401(k).


> I failed to educate properly at that time, and now he's not able to do Roth contributions to save money in the future.

That's not an inescapable situation.

Some 401k providers (eg most of the ones provided by FAANG) allow you to roll pretax IRA money into your 401k, which frees up your IRA for backdoor Roth.


Also, some i401k providers let you do this. If you are a sole proprietor, even on the side, you can open such an account. I know Schwab lets you do a "reverse rollover."


The site does not work on mobile iOS safari


I'm testing the site right now on my girlfriend's iPhone 7, iOS 13.3.1, Safari. All systems are go. Can you tell me more about your phone?




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