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> People are not going to patronize restaurants and bars as long as the risk of infection remains high.

It's not even that. People's spending habits have and will change drastically (those who still have incomes). And those who were put out of work will be playing financial catch-up once they obtain new employment and are very unlikely to patronize bars, etc at the same rates they used to.

We also have to consider that people who do keep their jobs already are or will likely be supporting family members and friends in need with their excess cash for a while (the cash they would typically spend at the bar, etc).

Additionally, those with jobs who can are going to continue saving their money at higher rates than before (which is currently happening despite the risk of inflation and/or low negative interest rates). At least, this is how I've changed my habits.



I agree with this too, I'm definitely in the still-employed-but-spending-has-changed camp as well.

We're completely ignoring the higher order effects of what the pandemic is doing and I think we do so at our own peril.




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