> On the off chance that I'm wrong, it invites a proper useful rebuttal or counter-argument.
Thanks for the invitation. Lets see where the goal post is here
> Either the ancedotes form useful data or they don't - you can't have it both ways.
In this case they do if you test for antibodies. We can't test for antibodies. It has been gaslighting from you to willingly ignore what the limitations of data are and how to solve them, if this is a term that bothers you make sure to look at it from my perspective as well, are you recycling this argument for everything epidemiologists aren't currently doing and everything that doesn't currently have consensus? Or is it just for me, either way I don't think you have factored in the exact argument here and I'll get to that:
> Does our political and epidemic policy really change if, say, technically this started several months earlier than we realized in Russia?
Yes it does, because it means the bay area is safe and can change its own policy. I don't see how you missed this in your effort to convert the word hypothetical into a pejorative.
> But since you seem to be hypothesizing about 2022 congressional committees
This was hyperbole but also likely what is going to happen. After the dust has cleared, Congress makes committees to see what exacerbated dysfunction - and they may then notice this discrepancy in the bay area as well. Meaning that it has nothing to do with a national policy decision because my hypothesis is relevant on a local level for the Bay Area as this whole thread made abundantly clear. For everywhere else it is merely interesting.
The difference is that one major economic center of the US can resume with a level of certainty and forward guidance.
My primary point of this exercise is that you are rejecting this possibility out of principle, recycled from rejecting a wide universe of possibilities, without factoring in what this one actually could change. So I hope thats clear now.
>> Either the ancedotes form useful data or they don't - you can't have it both ways.
> In this case they do if you test for antibodies
I'm not sure if this is a disagreement in framing or what. I encourage retroactive testing for antibodies, however, I do so in spite of ancedotal data failing to form useful data that suggests such tests will contradict the currently understood origins of the virus. Finding antibodies for samples taken in December, for example, sounds like it would be interesting and potentially useful science - for the very reason that it contradicts the data formed by said ancedotes.
>> Does our political and epidemic policy really change if, say, technically this started several months earlier than we realized in Russia?
> Yes it does, because it means the bay area is safe [...]
Wait what? How the heck would that conclusion follow? If there was some safer first wave originating from outside of China, and we're now in the middle of a dangerous second wave, then we're still dealing with a second dangerous wave! Are you... assuming some confounding variable is what's causing this to be dangerous, and assuming said confounding variable isn't present in the bay area? On what basis? For how long? There are confounding variables - the age of the victims, societal mask use, possibly weather conditions, and more to boot I'm sure... but I'm completely unaware of any that would suggest the bay area is somehow "safe", regardless of the origin of this thing. If anything, it might suggest that the confounding variables are changing to make this thing more dangerous.
The worldwide spread is giving us a huge sample size under varying conditions, the better to understand said confounding variables. It seems like a bit of a stretch to assume that any additional hypothetical early sample points are going to give us terribly much more insight as to what said confounding variables are, when we've turned half the planet into an involuntary testbed already - if there are indeed such confounding variables that would make parts of the world "safe" - and a stretch beyond the breaking point of common sense to assume that those insights will automatically make the bay area specifically safe when this thing is killing people just up the coast.
> [...] and can change its own policy. I don't see how you missed this in your effort to convert the word hypothetical into a pejorative.
Hypothesizing is great, and a fundamental part of the scientific process - which is why I don't wish to sully the term by conflating it with biased wishful thinking and conclusion jumping. I also haven't missed e.g. the bay area and California at large joining the Western States Pact, and their ability to make/change their own policy.
What I have completely missed is even the hypothetical logic train to "the bay area is safe". I have attempted to guess at it above, but it has so many holes that I fear I must be (unintentionally, I promise!) strawmanning you - and that you clearly must have some other train of logic leading to that conclusion that I'm simply failing to synthesize on your behalf. Perhaps you stated it elsewhere and can simply point me to the right part of that thread?
To recap, a lot of people think the bay area should have more deaths and more cases, similar to Seattle. The proactive stay-at-home orders are interesting but still seem to be too effective - as if maybe more people are immune already. California has failed at testing for active cases, but there also aren't many deaths in the bay area. Is it completely from the proactive lockdown, or maybe the anecdotes about similar symptoms earlier than expected have merit.
"Safe" meant "maybe we don't need a lockdown as long either" or that "a larger portion of the population than you might think doesn't need to be in lockdown" and that it loses utility to keep them in lockdown. At the very least, it would allow for the Mayors offices in bay area counties, and the Governors offices to take a holistic view at the blanket order - or FUTURE blanket orders when this flares up again throughout the year. But only after antibody tests occurred.
Thanks for the invitation. Lets see where the goal post is here
> Either the ancedotes form useful data or they don't - you can't have it both ways.
In this case they do if you test for antibodies. We can't test for antibodies. It has been gaslighting from you to willingly ignore what the limitations of data are and how to solve them, if this is a term that bothers you make sure to look at it from my perspective as well, are you recycling this argument for everything epidemiologists aren't currently doing and everything that doesn't currently have consensus? Or is it just for me, either way I don't think you have factored in the exact argument here and I'll get to that:
> Does our political and epidemic policy really change if, say, technically this started several months earlier than we realized in Russia?
Yes it does, because it means the bay area is safe and can change its own policy. I don't see how you missed this in your effort to convert the word hypothetical into a pejorative.
> But since you seem to be hypothesizing about 2022 congressional committees
This was hyperbole but also likely what is going to happen. After the dust has cleared, Congress makes committees to see what exacerbated dysfunction - and they may then notice this discrepancy in the bay area as well. Meaning that it has nothing to do with a national policy decision because my hypothesis is relevant on a local level for the Bay Area as this whole thread made abundantly clear. For everywhere else it is merely interesting.
The difference is that one major economic center of the US can resume with a level of certainty and forward guidance.
My primary point of this exercise is that you are rejecting this possibility out of principle, recycled from rejecting a wide universe of possibilities, without factoring in what this one actually could change. So I hope thats clear now.