Excess mortality strikes me as very poor data. It seems very unlikely that, during a once-in-a-century pandemic with completely unprecedented severe lockdowns, we should expect all-cause mortality to be close to the baseline.
Sorry, what isn't what we see? I don't think there's a reasonable baseline at all; I think we have no idea what mortality "should" look like, in a world where everyone's under house arrest and afraid of hospitals. You can argue it's lower because people are taking less risks, higher because they're under more stress, lower because they're eating out less, higher because they don't get hospital treatment they need.
Many deaths won't be attributed to covid19 but still caused by it.
Here an explanation:
https://twitter.com/firefoxx66/status/1249996541424816128