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The global spread pretty clearly happened before China locked down in late January.

Singapore starts screening inbound travelers January 3:

https://www.moh.gov.sg/news-highlights/details/precautionary...

China locks down epicenter of Wuhan outbreak January 23:

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-health-who-idUSKBN1...

The initial response in China was to try to cover it up, only after it was out of control did they start locking things down.




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