The governor's letter is using a doubling time of 4 days, but there's good reason to believe this 4-day time is due to recently increased testing.
I find this dubious given the widely publicized shortage in tests. Also I question why you are using research from a month and a half ago when there is lots of more recent data to refine those models.
Seems to me the more likely situation is that: (1) there are more cases than we think right now (Maybe not 40x, but maybe 10-20x?). (2) the doubling time will be affected quite A LOT by the measures being put in place. It might drop the R0 to close to 1.
(1) is definitely true given that doctors still can't order a test simply because someone has symptoms of COVID, or even symptoms of COVID and a known exposure route from someone who is positive. (Source, my ex who is a doctor who couldn't get a test for someone today in Orange County.)
(2) is to be strongly hoped for. That is the reason why we are implementing the kinds of lockdowns that we are seeing.
I find this dubious given the widely publicized shortage in tests. Also I question why you are using research from a month and a half ago when there is lots of more recent data to refine those models.
For a back of the envelope, see https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/... on a log scale. You'll find a doubling time worldwide very close to what the governor's letter says.
Seems to me the more likely situation is that: (1) there are more cases than we think right now (Maybe not 40x, but maybe 10-20x?). (2) the doubling time will be affected quite A LOT by the measures being put in place. It might drop the R0 to close to 1.
(1) is definitely true given that doctors still can't order a test simply because someone has symptoms of COVID, or even symptoms of COVID and a known exposure route from someone who is positive. (Source, my ex who is a doctor who couldn't get a test for someone today in Orange County.)
(2) is to be strongly hoped for. That is the reason why we are implementing the kinds of lockdowns that we are seeing.