Industrial grade is the key word here. They have there customers, so they don't need "cheap" PR. They are specialized in chemical plants, usually professional organizations know there limits (conditions apply). Plus, the WHO and others have these models and tools as well. Plus the domain knowledge needed.
Why wo don't have anything from these bodies is a different story, so.
> Plus, the WHO and others have these models and tools as well.
Assuming they have[0], my core issue is: why won't they share them? Society is not 100% made of illiterate rubes who can only add (but not multiply) and read a line chart (and get confused by a log scale). There's enough people who could make use of more sophisticated information, including politicians and political advisors.
The discussion about e.g. whether a country should stop mass gatherings now or later would be infinitely better if it wasn't just "I think so" and "we have to flatten the curve!!11", but instead if one could say "look, the WHO model shows it won't help much", or "an alternative model proposed by virologist X suggests that it has most benefits if done today; here, look at this chart", especially if people could play with the models themselves and propose corrections.
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[0] - I'm not convinced; I have the feeling most work in this space is still done with Excel or basic Python and R toolkits.
“Flatten the curve” is a reference to a chart suggesting it has the most benefits if done today. I can imagine objections about the parameters of the chart or the authoritativeness of the source, but I haven’t seen anyone argue against it on those terms; the vast majority of counter arguments I’ve seen are casual dismissals that it could become so bad when things are mostly OK today.
You are basically asking the same question I am. Why are they not sharing this kind of things? I think it is because the majority of the population is illiterate in that regard. This whole "exponetial growth modelling" going shows this pretty clearly. Not showing just opens a door they are not aware of I think.
also, I don't care about the tools they use. As lonfg as the results are correct.
> There's enough people who could make use of more sophisticated information, including politicians and political advisors.
Far be it from me to suggest politicians and political advisors are "illiterate rubes", however I can tell you with confidence that in my experience politicians don't like numbers and models and won't listen to you if you try to tell them about them. Fundamentally this means that even when they're not actually illiterate, they are functionally illiterate (unless of course said model serves their political interest exactly).
Why wo don't have anything from these bodies is a different story, so.