As I suggested on another thread (and received some flak for it), it would be really interesting to see some math and/or a simulation to compare these two scenarios. In reality, closer to 30% than 100% of the world population will end up being infected by a disease like this (look at Spanish flu or Swine flu for reference [0]), and the total number of infected is probably different between the two curves.
Consider a hypothetical scenario: authorities encourage young and healthy people to go out and about their daily lives and get sick, and they institute a voluntary quarantine for people who would be considered highly at risk. Would more or fewer "at-risk" people become infected?
These are some other factors to consider:
- Could a short term quarantine for at-risk groups (shorter because the faster general infection rate would result in faster herd immunity) be more effective? Do quarantines and social distancing measures suffer from "quarantine fatigue"?
- What are the comparative mortality rates between people with medical care and those without it? (i.e. those in an overwhelmed system due to the fast spreading scenario)
- Does recovering from the illness result in strong immunity?
- What are the comparative costs of quarantines to society and economy at large?
- At what point is a vaccine or treatment likely to be widely available (if it is soon, then the slower spread is obviously crucial).
I suspect the answer is very nuanced. If I get some time, I will put together a simulation and try my hand at the math, but I am curious if anyone has already considered and compared these factors quantitatively.
Consider a hypothetical scenario: authorities encourage young and healthy people to go out and about their daily lives and get sick, and they institute a voluntary quarantine for people who would be considered highly at risk. Would more or fewer "at-risk" people become infected?
These are some other factors to consider:
- Could a short term quarantine for at-risk groups (shorter because the faster general infection rate would result in faster herd immunity) be more effective? Do quarantines and social distancing measures suffer from "quarantine fatigue"?
- What are the comparative mortality rates between people with medical care and those without it? (i.e. those in an overwhelmed system due to the fast spreading scenario)
- Does recovering from the illness result in strong immunity?
- What are the comparative costs of quarantines to society and economy at large?
- At what point is a vaccine or treatment likely to be widely available (if it is soon, then the slower spread is obviously crucial).
I suspect the answer is very nuanced. If I get some time, I will put together a simulation and try my hand at the math, but I am curious if anyone has already considered and compared these factors quantitatively.
[0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu