I got in a lot of fights with Apple fans over this last year. :) My point is that tablets have never ever taken off---even though various companies have been trying for decades.
Of course the argument that the iPad is different from every other device in history due to ubiquitous internet access and multi-touch. And I admit that I couldn't even convince myself entirely that those weren't game changers, but a year later it seems that the verdict is in: they're not.
PS: One of my Apple friends just bought a Macbook Air and was trying to sell his iPad to me last week. :)
>a year later it seems that the verdict is in: they're not.
Not entirely sure what world it is you live in... how has touchable computing not been a game-changer? Just look at all the iDevice apps out there, and how frequently and powerfully the UI decisions there have changed desktop applications.
My argument isn't that touch devices haven't taken off, nor do I argue that ubiquitous internet isn't a huge deal for the pocket computing market. I love my new Nexus S for those reasons, and I'm sure if Palm had had those features ten years ago, we'd be in a different place today.
My argument is that---regardless of those features' importance for pocket computing---they haven't changed the game for tablet devices. Tablet devices remain wedged in that space where they're too big for the pocket and too small for the lap or desk. If you're going out, take your phone; if you're staying in, you might as well use your laptop and get some work done.
What’s your evidence for that conclusion? The iPad is selling much better than expected. You can’t yet buy other, similar devices but they will be coming to the market in large numbers very soon.
I agree that this is too little information to say anything definitive about the future of the tablet market but it is definitely not enough information to conclude that the iPad is not a “game changer”. Many people would, based on the phenomenal success of the iPad alone, argue that it is most definitely a game changer. I’m not prepared to make that statement just yet but it seems pretty weird to me to conclude the exact opposite, at least at this point in time.
15 Million Ipads sold in one year would seem to handily contradict whatever argument you're trying to make. People love tablet pcs, because they simplify computing for them ... a lot of people on hacker news don't get that, because using computers (in all their delicious complexity) is generally second nature for us.
Of course the argument that the iPad is different from every other device in history due to ubiquitous internet access and multi-touch. And I admit that I couldn't even convince myself entirely that those weren't game changers, but a year later it seems that the verdict is in: they're not.
PS: One of my Apple friends just bought a Macbook Air and was trying to sell his iPad to me last week. :)