Would be lovely if someone put together betting markets for these events so people could put some real, actual skin in the game. Would be even lovelier if the authors of papers had to disclose their own bets (if any) in the papers, similarly to how they disclose the funding sources today. That would be a good signal as to the level of confidence they have in their predictions. 2065 is not that far out, and the water levels won't drop all at once, so it should be possible to set up shorter term bets.
Climate events, if anything, should be far more predictable than the stock markets, while still retaining substantial randomness and uncertainty for the betting market to be possible.
The Colorado feeds a couple of hydroelectric dams you've probably heard of, so if you can either invest/divest in the power companies or in e.g. houseboats or yachts on the reservoirs, that would kind of give you an instrument to place your bet.
That's OK, I'd monitor JP Morgan's bets now that they are onboard. I just want there to be real, direct cost (positive or negative) be attached to the probability that the prediction is accurate. That would be vastly preferable to the current situation where there's no downside for the researcher for predicting incorrectly, and no upside to predicting correctly.
In fact, given the purported seriousness of the situation, this should be structured such that "USGS researchers" who are correct most of the time would be "wallowing in cash", and those who are not would be ejected from the field.
How much is from climate change and how much from agriculture and cities sucking it dry? These guys did a documentary of their journey down the entire length of the river to see where the water was going.
Climate Emergencies
1966 - Oil gone in 10 years
1967 - Dire famine forecast by 1975
1968 - Overpopulation will spread worldwide
1969 - Everyone will disappear in a Cloud of Blue Steam in 1989
1970 - World will use up its natural resources by 2000
1970 - Urban citizens will require gas mask by 1985
1970 - Nitrogen buildup will make all lands unusable
1970 - Decaying pollution will kill all the fish
1970s - Killer Bees!!!
1970 - Ice Age by 2000
1970 - Americans will be subjected to water rationing by 1975 and food rationing by 1980
1971 - New Ice Age coming by 2020 or 2030
1972 - New Ice Age by 2070
1972 - Oil depleted in 20 years
1974 - Space satellites show New Ice Age coming fast
1974 - Another Ice Age?
1974 - Ozone depletion a great peril to life
1976 - Scientific consensus planet cooling; famines imminent
1977 - Department of Energy says oil will peak in 90s.
1978 - No end in sight to 30-year global cooling
1980 - Acid rain kills life in lakes
1980 - Peak oil in 2000
1988 - Regional drought (that never happened) in 90s.
1988 - Temperatures in DC will hit record high (no records broken)
1988 - Maldive Islands will be underwater by 2018 (nope)
1989 - Rising sea level will obliterate nations if nothing done by 2000.
1989 - New York City Westside Highway underwater by 2018.
1996 - Peak oil in 2020
2000 - Children won’t know what snow is
2002 - Famines if we don’t give up eating fishes, meat, and diary
2002 - Peak oil in 2010
2004 - Britain will be Siberia by 2024
2005 - Manhattan underwater by 2015
2006 - Super Hurricanes!!!
2008 - Arctic will be ice-free by 2018
2008 - Climate genius Al Gore predict ice-free Arctic by 2013
2009 - Climate genius Prince Charles says we have 96 months to save the world
2009 UK Prime Ministers says 50 days to “save planet from catastrophe”
2009 Al Gore moves ice-free Arctic prediction from 2013 to 2014
2013 Arctic ice-free by 2015
2014 Only 500 days before climate chaos
2019 - Hey Greta, we really need you to convince them this time.
2020 - Australian bush fires are caused by climate change.
It’s just a ploy for government to add more taxes.
Evaporation is definitely not constant, at all, not remotely. More heat means more evaporation, and less snow means more heat and therefore a shorter journey (on average) back to the gas phase. Aside from climate, it's the principle that underlies mundane things like hair dryers, clothes dryers, and sauce reductions.
> Snow's cold, moist surface influences how much heat and moisture circulate between the ground and the atmosphere. Snow helps insulate the ground below, holding in heat and preventing moisture from evaporating into the atmosphere.
>Less snow means more dark ground is exposed and absorbing heat, instead of being covered in white stuff that reflects light. The warmer ground means higher rates of evaporation and, thus, less water in the river.
Climate events, if anything, should be far more predictable than the stock markets, while still retaining substantial randomness and uncertainty for the betting market to be possible.