This is less of a risk than it might appear. To be sure, it would be expensive to replace the computer part of the entire installed fleet. But the (potentially) full self-driving option is very richly priced, and sells with an incremental margin of 100% when component replacements are excluded. The sensor & computer package are included with all production cars, regardless of whether the FSD option is purchased.
Additionally, Tesla still grows their sales and customer base exponentially. This means that most significant changes in strategy during the production ramp-up will require (in the form of deprecation of now-obsolete production resources) only a small fraction of the investments required to achieve their full, steady-state production capacity.
The same argument holds for the potential case of major changes in battery technology. (Replacements of current fleet excluded, which would not happen for batteries). If Tesla's current battery technology is obsolete in 5-10 years, that's not a very big deal as their sales are expected to be a multiple of today's by then, and the new technology would be phased in during the expected production ramp. (If Tesla fails to grow by a multiple of today's sales, they have largely failed).
Additionally, Tesla still grows their sales and customer base exponentially. This means that most significant changes in strategy during the production ramp-up will require (in the form of deprecation of now-obsolete production resources) only a small fraction of the investments required to achieve their full, steady-state production capacity.
The same argument holds for the potential case of major changes in battery technology. (Replacements of current fleet excluded, which would not happen for batteries). If Tesla's current battery technology is obsolete in 5-10 years, that's not a very big deal as their sales are expected to be a multiple of today's by then, and the new technology would be phased in during the expected production ramp. (If Tesla fails to grow by a multiple of today's sales, they have largely failed).