That presumes constant growth of desktop computers (/computers running desktop OSes.) What if it's just mobile growing at the expense of desktop generally? I know that in e.g. education, computer labs have been replaced with carts full of tablets.
Well first they are selling that many Unit, so it is either their user replacing old unit and no user growth, or their 50% of Mac are to first time user stats are bogus.
Second there is still over a billion Windows PCs on the market. And judging from Intel's latest quarterly results suggest the PC market is still in very healthy replacement cycle.
I know a lot of education are going all in on Tablet. I do wonder how big the market is. I dont have any Data with that.