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> even these numbers do not guarantee anything

at this point a reasonable response is "there are no guarantees". If the 4% rule was back-tested through the great depression and generally came out fine, it's probably in the right ballpark.

As another FIRE blogger puts it, "3% or less is a near sure bet as anything in this life can be"

https://jlcollinsnh.com/2012/12/07/stocks-part-xiii-withdraw...




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