It is hard to measure, if you only measure Debt Per GDP Ratio, you ignore the interest rate which may be very low or even zero. May be Interest per GDP Ratio would be a better metric, which I have yet to see any numbers of figures given out. ( And I cant be bothered to work it out myself )
Then there is the Debt Per Asset. For example while China has on the surface a huge debt problem, they also have much more asset ( on paper, assuming it can be trusted ) in their book.
There are also other things like those previous Debt Crisis were trigged by bubble, which was the result of people taking debt into those bubble and bursted. We dont have a bubble right now. Everything is ridiculously stable in relative terms, growth is low compared to previous decade, and nothing much to bet against. S/P 500 P/E are still in 20s despite it being in record high. Most companies have very decent cash flow. And most of those cooperate debt were if money if so cheap why not take it. Apple has 150B debt, people didn't freak out because they are still 100B Net Cash positive.
I just dont see another crisis happening yet. But the current model squeeze the middle class that will sway political movement towards the left, as we have seen around the world. Not entirely sure what sort of impact will this causes. Any historian known of anything similar in history?
It is hard to measure, if you only measure Debt Per GDP Ratio, you ignore the interest rate which may be very low or even zero. May be Interest per GDP Ratio would be a better metric, which I have yet to see any numbers of figures given out. ( And I cant be bothered to work it out myself )
Then there is the Debt Per Asset. For example while China has on the surface a huge debt problem, they also have much more asset ( on paper, assuming it can be trusted ) in their book.
There are also other things like those previous Debt Crisis were trigged by bubble, which was the result of people taking debt into those bubble and bursted. We dont have a bubble right now. Everything is ridiculously stable in relative terms, growth is low compared to previous decade, and nothing much to bet against. S/P 500 P/E are still in 20s despite it being in record high. Most companies have very decent cash flow. And most of those cooperate debt were if money if so cheap why not take it. Apple has 150B debt, people didn't freak out because they are still 100B Net Cash positive.
I just dont see another crisis happening yet. But the current model squeeze the middle class that will sway political movement towards the left, as we have seen around the world. Not entirely sure what sort of impact will this causes. Any historian known of anything similar in history?