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When the sanctions came out, I was surprised that Apple and Google DIDNT go nuclear. It seems pretty obvious that the nation of China won't just voluntarily give up all it's western smart phones. So the only other medium term alternative would be to begin work on a domestic OS. Apple and Google (and the US economy and tech sector by extension) are the big losers from that, China the big gainer.

It's not quite Tin Foil Hat time, but I also wondered: if the chinese government had tried to ban foreign OSs and force a homegrown equivalent it would have been resisted at home and abroad it would have spurred (real) sanctions and possibly upset the (lucrative, strategically valuable) hardware supply chain.

Trump doing it was a great way for the Chinese government to get what it wanted without looking like the bad guy (it might even be able to play the victim, especially at home).

Given the predictability of these outcomes, one has to wonder: was Trump incompetent (he expected a different outcome) or was he serving a different agenda (maybe a trump hotel in Beijing is about to be approved?).



Google has little to lose from Chinese sanctions and probably gains from competitors being hurt.




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