On: Quadratic Payments: A Primer

[lifeisstillgood]

Can I check something - reading the wikipedia article on Kelly Bets it seems that one should take the expected chance of winning, double it and subtract 1.0 and use that as percentage of bet size

So when I win 3/4 times, that's .75 -> 1.5 -> .5 of my total wealth.

But this basically means never gamble till the odds are in your favour. (ie above .5 chance of winning)

What does this say about founding a startup?

[seangrogg → lifeisstillgood]

The most insightful thing the Kelly criterion says about founding a startup is "don't bet unless you have an edge".

[ersiees → lifeisstillgood]

No, there is the letter b indicating the payoff multiplier. So you should not bet if in expectation you lose on the bet, which seems intuitive.