While this is a really bad sign, another really bad sign is they are flying F-16s low over civilian crowds right now, for no other reason than to intimidate them. Just saw it on CBS and it's pretty freaky and scary.
I'm starting to think this is going to end really really badly. Are democratic revolutions even possible anymore today, given the technology and sheer firepower the small number in power can wield against the masses (which ironically the USA sells them).
How quickly we forget. Tunisia, earlier this month.
In fact that example was the impetus behind the Egyptian protest movement. If (as seems likely at this point) Egypt falls, expect to see several other governments fall as well.
This is as momentous a time for the Middle East as the fall of the Iron Curtain was for Eastern Europe. (Incidentally said fall gives several more examples of how military might doesn't prevent democratic revolutions.)
Not to be too pedantic, but the Eastern European "refolutions" were made possible because a) the Soviet Union and b) local Communist governments simultaneously made the decision not to use force.
Those decisions (and their publicity) were a necessary condition; it's what made the difference between 1956, 1968 and 1980 on the one hand, and 1989 on the other.
It will be a long and dark road for Egypt if Mubarak can successfully order the military to slaughter the protesting masses. The revolution will fail, both the government and the opposition will lose credibility in the eyes of the people and it will be years or decades of strict martial law.
Military might does not prevent the possibility of democratic revolution. However many pre-conditions are necessary before democratic revolution can happen.
For instance the military response to 1980's events in Poland were much less nasty than the earlier examples because of the economic trouble Poland was in, and its dependence on loans from Western banks. The economic fallout from the regime's attempts to navigate their way through conflicting demands helped set the stage for the events of 1989.
Without that backdrop, 1989 would have turned out very differently. No matter how much the people wanted otherwise.
As for Mubarak, I'd be willing to bet money that it is too late for him. Yes, the army can crack down. But the public images from any attempt to do so will make it unpalatable for Western companies to do business with Egypt for a long enough period of time to recreate his problems.
Isn't it likely that the F16s are up for reconnaissance? Any time there's a touch of trouble here (in Belfast), there's invariably several helicopters over head. Nowadays these are normally small police helicopters, but up until a few years ago heavier military helicopters were common. I imagine that a plane would be preferable in a bigger city such as Cairo, especially if the protests are spread out.
No one uses F-16s for crowd reconnaissance. You'd be much better off with a few helicopters, which can hover over a problem spot, or any of the variety of fixed-wing aircraft specifically designed for it - good downwards visibility, low stall speed, etc.
I'm starting to think this is going to end really really badly. Are democratic revolutions even possible anymore today, given the technology and sheer firepower the small number in power can wield against the masses (which ironically the USA sells them).