I think many will still have cars, although they'll have to be electric [0]. Will the driverless car be as cheap as the second hand Nissan Leaf? Also, perhaps the car isn't used to commute every day when the weather is good and you aren't battling through traffic.
In Europe cycling distance to work within a city is as quick as driving. If you aren't quite fit enough you can get an electric bike (very popular amongst the elderly).
I didn't consider the suburbs in my question but in a small to medium sized city (<0.5m) I'd suggest the average commute would be ~8km. That takes ~25mins on a bicycle. Now project a better micromobility infrastructure and cycling looks much more attractive. All those school runs just vanish.
So you'd have to rich and fat to still be driving. ;)
> Will the driverless car be as cheap as the second hand Nissan Leaf?
Eventually, yes. That is the march of technology. Especially if Elon Musk's bet that it can be done using only cameras is right - then the hardware cost is the same as an iPhone. If LIDAR is also required, it will take longer for the prices to go down.
This year I bought a 2-year old used econobox car (63 horsepower of pure fury). It already came with 360 degree "top-down-view" parking cameras, stereo camera auto emergency braking, lane departure warning, green light departure warning. And it's a mild hybrid. Once the software is developed, it won't take more than a decade to start coming down in price.
I am not at all bitter that my brand new 60K electric car does not have top-down camera ability. Or CarPlay. No, I am not bitter at all.
I drove a rental Nissan Rogue a few weeks back while we were in DC and it had top-down camera, auto steer, adaptive cruise, heated everything, etc. And that is not exactly the most desirable car you can buy. The technology really has trickled all the way to the bottom, but some of it needs to trickle back up...
I guess it's like hotels. Any cheap roadside hotel will give you free Wi-Fi, but the expensive luxury hotel will charge you $10/night for the pleasure (not sure how true that is anymore, it was a couple years ago)
> not all are fit enough to cycle regularly (old age, disability, obesity).
Obesity is one thing promoting modes of transportation other than driving is a hope to solve; where the developed world is showing highest rates ever and scientific studies showing that the chair of a car is unhealthy.
In many countries such people use public transportation, but that's crowded and inconvenient for the richer folks who can afford cars.
Why do you think people still have cars in Amsterdam?