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I strongly disagree with this idea.

While not having to park, consuming electricity, and more efficient road usage will make cars much much better, this future car will still be significantly less efficient than modern trains in several key metrics. Examples include efficient land usage, efficient energy usage, maintenance requirements, raw resource requirements, max speed.

As the process of urbanization continues trains are the most logical next step in transportation for our cities. While side driving cars will play a role in less traveled routes, we’ll see heavy investment in trains as cities try to find ways to allow more and more people access to their most busy business districts.




What you leave out of your calculation is the value of peoples time. Non individualized transport currently has the advantage of people being able to work instead of having to operate the vehicle. Once this goes away with self driving cars, the only advantage non individualized transport might have is price. Looking at current ticket prices, I doubt that it will be able to compete on that alone.


Sure, self driving cars will be common in a lot of places, but the most dense places will require more.




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