The reason his assertion is false as the growth of Android is not tied to a single carrier or device. It has more to do with the OEMs adopting Android over Symbian or WP7. Motorola became cashflow positive by using Android. HTC can't keep up with demand.
Growth is not tied simply to the US market either. Android usage is exploding worldwide specifically with cheap handsets in huge countries such as those in SE Asia.
So Gruber, blinded by his own fanaticism, actually thinks Verizon's iPhone offering is going to compete with 50+ OEMs' adoption and usage of Android? I think not.
I am an android user with absolutely no intention of switching, that said, this is a completely reasonable set of arguments. The iphone will sell on Verizon by the millions and fast, faster than Android, hopefully it will force manufactures and Google to step up their game.
Not sure about the future of pad computing though.
I don't get why Gruber cares so much. It's like the iPhone is his own personal creation and that he is brutally beaten every time someone makes a call with an Android phone. But the problem is ... it isn't, and he isn't. He doesn't even work for Apple.
There is room in the marketplace for several types of phones. The iPhone is for those who want a controlled experience where every i is dotted and every t is crossed. Android is for people that are willing to live on the bleeding edge to be able to connect to their OpenVPN at home, even if it means their animations stutter a little bit because of GC. It's also cheaper, which always picks up sales.
So why all this ultra-emotional hate? It's just so stupid. Buy the phone you like. Develop apps on a platform you like. If you change your mind, buy a different phone.
Let's debate which color is best. I prefer green. Anyone that likes any other color is clearly dumber than me.
This is stupid, right? So why is it different when we are talking about pocket-sized telephones?
Right, the monthly cost is the same, so the only cost comparison consumers go through is the cost of the actual phones.
When they're standing in the store staring at two phones and the iphone is $200 and the android is $50 (or free) that seems like a big difference, all else being the same.
I think there's room at higher price points too. There are a lot of people who prefer Android or care a lot about some specific feature that isn't available on the iPhone and isn't likely to be. I'm sure the Verizon iPhone will be very popular and cut in to Android sales, but that doesn't mean Android won't continue to grow. There are a lot of feature phone users out there.
I'm not so sure. (1) The plan price already dwarfs the phone price in all cases (2) An older-gen iPhone on ATT is $50. That's pretty darn cheap. (As the current gen is replaced, I'd expect something similar on Verizon.)
But hasn't this already happened? How are Android phone sales for AT&T?
It's certainly happened in the UK. The iPhone is available on all the major networks (for free on the higher end contracts) and is available unlocked and SIM free from Apple stores. It hasn't hampered Android's growth to any great extent.
I'm ready for sales of both to settle at some equilibrium, whatever that is. No doubt there'll continue to be tons of competition/innovation, marketshare fluctuations, and strong rivalry. But I have to think that pretty soon there'll be some degree of stasis reached, and people can start to get comfortable with the idea that they're both valid models, they both have strengths and weaknesses, and they're both going to be very successful for a long, long time to come.
no matter how cheap Android handsets get, the monthly plans are still the biggest cost
While technically true, are most people really aware of that at the time of purchase? The service is something you pay for down the road, but the phone is something you pay for right now.
This sort of talk is common for Americans who are amazingly ignorant of other markets. Even if the availability of the iPhone on CDMA will completely reverse the trend in America, there are many other markets in which Android has a lot of potential.
One good thing coming out of all this is that Daring Fireball has become a good link aggregator and a collection point for anti-Android news and views.
Growth is not tied simply to the US market either. Android usage is exploding worldwide specifically with cheap handsets in huge countries such as those in SE Asia.
So Gruber, blinded by his own fanaticism, actually thinks Verizon's iPhone offering is going to compete with 50+ OEMs' adoption and usage of Android? I think not.