Why attempt to predict future conditions decades out? We do it all the time even though we absolutely know our predictions will not be exactly right. A prediction, even if imperfect, is useful if the prediction contains some bounds or probability estimates. People individually and society collectively makes best estimate judgements based on imperfect data every day, all day.
You've done some modeling of sales data, and the difficulty of predicting human whims leads you to suspect that modeling physics is an impossible and useless task? "I imagine climate modeling is more complex than my sales models" is an understatement of supreme folly. Even if you are a genius, the amount of work invested by tens of thousands of researchers spending their lives on this problem is incomparably more robust that some sales data modeling you tossed off.
> Have humans ever created a complex model that has enabled us to predict the future with any degree of accuracy?
Eclipses and solar positions can be computed to extreme accuracy centuries out. There is no closed solution -- it is all modeled and computed numerically.
The IPCC reports do get revised upward just about every release because the estimates are always conservative. Despite what is widely claimed by doubters, the IPCC reports have not been alarmist, and we can go back 30 years now.
Go back 40 years to Exxon's own modeling of climate change and considering the limited amount of data as compared to today, their estimates are not far off.
Why attempt to predict future conditions decades out? We do it all the time even though we absolutely know our predictions will not be exactly right. A prediction, even if imperfect, is useful if the prediction contains some bounds or probability estimates. People individually and society collectively makes best estimate judgements based on imperfect data every day, all day.
You've done some modeling of sales data, and the difficulty of predicting human whims leads you to suspect that modeling physics is an impossible and useless task? "I imagine climate modeling is more complex than my sales models" is an understatement of supreme folly. Even if you are a genius, the amount of work invested by tens of thousands of researchers spending their lives on this problem is incomparably more robust that some sales data modeling you tossed off.
> Have humans ever created a complex model that has enabled us to predict the future with any degree of accuracy?
Eclipses and solar positions can be computed to extreme accuracy centuries out. There is no closed solution -- it is all modeled and computed numerically.
The IPCC reports do get revised upward just about every release because the estimates are always conservative. Despite what is widely claimed by doubters, the IPCC reports have not been alarmist, and we can go back 30 years now.
Go back 40 years to Exxon's own modeling of climate change and considering the limited amount of data as compared to today, their estimates are not far off.
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97...