Honestly, I believe it to an extent. I have done lots of work analyzing marketing campaigns in a data scientist role, and generally I've found that they are pretty ineffective, or at the very least, much less effective than is being purported by many data vendors, digital advertisers, and analytics firms. Big data, AI, and analytics are the buzzwords of the day, and my guess is that at least 60% of the dollars companies are using on their analytics is going to marketing. No one wants to be the dinosaur stuck in the past, and everyone wants to be "data driven". On the other hand, some of the biggest companies in the world (Google, Facebook, Twitter) are in the ad business, which creates a bit of an "appeal to authority" fallacy to the mix.
Meanwhile, in my experience, statistical understanding and the general skills required to understand why an analysis would or would not be valid is virtually non-existent for most people. Also, the majority of parties involved have a vested interest in the story of the effectiveness of marketing being perpetuated. Data vendors and advertisers, including giants like Google and Facebook, no longer have a product if it isn't. Consulting companies and internal analytics teams do ton of work solely focused on marketing. That all goes away if people realize its a useless exercise. The companies buying the advertising, who one would think would absolutely be interested in knowing if their dollars are going to waste, are filled with people whose jobs are contingent on the idea that marketing is driving business.
I'm not convinced marketing does nothing. But I think the effect is greatly overstated. And I think its becoming less effective over time. I can't remember the last time I clicked on an advertised result on Google, or a banner ad. Perhaps they were useful at one point years ago, but I think people are increasingly learning to tune them out over time, the same way one would acclimate to a noisy environment. Coincidentally, I remember seeing a link here on HN relatively recently about how the New York Times completely dropped their targeted marketing efforts, and found that their subscription growth remained unchanged. I think that were more companies to follow suit, many would see similar results.
Have you seen any data on conversion rates for native podcast ads? They may not be targeted but given the amount of money being thrown at podcasters these days I wonder if there's a particularly strong advertising rationale for supporting them.
I haven't. I've never worked with podcasts. You bring up a good point however: advertising is a pretty broad brush that describes a whole host of activities. While I think advertising, and in particular "targeted" advertising, is overstated in its effect, there are probably particular subtypes or avenues that are quite powerful.
Meanwhile, in my experience, statistical understanding and the general skills required to understand why an analysis would or would not be valid is virtually non-existent for most people. Also, the majority of parties involved have a vested interest in the story of the effectiveness of marketing being perpetuated. Data vendors and advertisers, including giants like Google and Facebook, no longer have a product if it isn't. Consulting companies and internal analytics teams do ton of work solely focused on marketing. That all goes away if people realize its a useless exercise. The companies buying the advertising, who one would think would absolutely be interested in knowing if their dollars are going to waste, are filled with people whose jobs are contingent on the idea that marketing is driving business.
I'm not convinced marketing does nothing. But I think the effect is greatly overstated. And I think its becoming less effective over time. I can't remember the last time I clicked on an advertised result on Google, or a banner ad. Perhaps they were useful at one point years ago, but I think people are increasingly learning to tune them out over time, the same way one would acclimate to a noisy environment. Coincidentally, I remember seeing a link here on HN relatively recently about how the New York Times completely dropped their targeted marketing efforts, and found that their subscription growth remained unchanged. I think that were more companies to follow suit, many would see similar results.