What you are calling an "educated guess" is basically the definition of insider trading.
> On Friday, August 25, 2017, Ying texted a co-worker that the breach they were working on “sounds bad. We may be the one breached.” The following Monday, Ying conducted web searches on the impact of Experian's 2015 data breach on its stock price. Later that morning, Ying exercised all of his stock options[.]
> On Friday, August 25, 2017, Ying texted a co-worker that the breach they were working on “sounds bad. We may be the one breached.” The following Monday, Ying conducted web searches on the impact of Experian's 2015 data breach on its stock price. Later that morning, Ying exercised all of his stock options[.]