This is Changan Ford, meaning a JV where Ford controls exactly 49% and Changan 51%. The fine is for anti competitive behavior in setting a floor on resale values, and it seems like a perfectly reasonable thing to fine.
I don't think this is very related to the trade war, as it is hurting a Chinese company just as badly as an American one.
can someone explain to me this "trade war" between the u.s. and china? as far as i can tell, it is an entirely constructed thing (in terms of how it started) and is simply the new "war" just like we had the cold war, war against drugs, war against terror, etc. so now the trade war is just the u.s.'s new war fetish.
so other than the current administration's idiotic approach to anything, what was the impetus of all of this?
When Clinton granted China MFN status and then was allowed into WTO there were some (perhaps naive) assumptions of working in good faith and that while it was expected China would be granted some breaks as it caught up, eventually it would play nice abide by the rules everyone else respects. Well, it’s been 30 years and China is still not playing fair in trade (ownership requirements, IP transfer, IP theft, market access, etc.)
The admin is doing something the Busch admin should have done, or at least the first Obama, but neither did because it would be too upsetting to multinationals and would also “upset” China.
Now we have someone who says times up, do what you signed up for or deal with the consequences of ignoring the rule set out.
And, to a great degree, I agree with this. Blue collar labor was thrown under the bus. That little Texan was right. A giant sucking sound did take the jobs, but not Mexico but rather China chiefly, among other labor outsourcing, to our detriment (their own too) and environmental degradation.
Now, I’m glad and it’s great China took this opportunity to lift its people from abject poverty but we took too much of a hit. It should have been more measured and more fair.
but my guess is that the period of china stealing ip (which is an obvious fact that has happened over decades) is only temporary in the grand scheme of things in that it won't last forever. this is because china has stolen ideas, concepts, and direct designs to catch up but is now in many areas surpassing product design in the u.s. so this idea that u.s. design and development > chinese design and development won't last and is already breaking down. thus, the u.s. is in real danger since china has all the manufacturing ability. so yea, china has stolen and ignored ip laws, but that soon won't even matter. that's at least my prediction.
i have a friend in a u.s. technology company, and they simply cannot beat the chinese version of their product in both price and features despite being the creator of the product category decades ahead of others. the chinese companies copied the design but have now exceeded it, so the u.s. product does very poorly in china.
so what it sounds like to me is that the u.s. sees the writing on the wall, which is all due to their own actions and corporate greed over the past few decades, and so now is making a hail mary in a trade war. it doesn't seem like a good idea when it likely won't be long until china has the upper hand.
so it seems it basically comes down to trump taking his poor understanding of dynamics and abusing the u.s. government's and people's need for a "war".
(Almost) Any country can be a leader in some area even if they are not a superpower. Germany, Japan, UK, France, Taiwan: they all have leadership in some technologies even though they are small compared to the US and China.
Should they throw their hand up and say, guys and gals of the world, we can’t keep up with you in all areas, please, come take our IP!
i was saying that it seems to me that the u.s. can't always rely on the argument and stance that "oh, it's just china making cheap copies". it seems that china has directly stolen and continues to do so, which is a major problem of course, but they will eventually have no need to. so the problem is worse than just needing to stop china from stealing. the problem is that it's possible the u.s. will be left behind because of our unconcentrated effort versus the chinese's highly concentrated economic approach.
my simple understanding is that u.s. corporation's greed and other u.s. economic factors caused a move of nearly all manufacturing to china and now everyone's saying "hey, wait a minute".
I see. But still, even if they are a leader in most areas, they will not be leaders in every area. If they play fair, then we can learn and cooperate.
The answer to our losing leadership to them isn’t to capitulate and continue allowing undeterred advantage, it’s, as you imply, to on-shore some of those lost skills. It’s not impossible, but it takes concerted effort by government, industry and citizens (who care about environmental impact, working conditions, fellow citizens).
I may misunderstand what you mean. Are you saying that you believe China will stop producing inferior (made as cheap as possible) copies of desirable goods and marking the price up? Why would they stop? They have already proven that they have no interest in acting in good faith, and in the absence of morals, this practice is obviously much more profitable than innovation.
China now has all the capital & knowledge required to become the worldwide leader in innovation. However, their entire industrial culture was built to the specifications of "making cheap copies". It will be interesting to see what the side effects of those origins will be for China in the long run.
i am saying that they will continue to do both low end and high end copies. but at the high end, they will eventually (and have in some markets), catch up to external innovation. at that point, they no longer need to copy and can go off innovating on their own. at the low end, innovation isn't needed, so cheap copies remain useful to them. but at the high end, why copy when you can do your own innovation and exceed western products in both features and price? copying is useful to catch up, but catching up is just a transition state. once they've "caught up", the copying conversation and policies won't be relevant anymore.
China has manufacturing facilities and capacity that far exceed any other nation. This includes making high end products based on foreign designed specifications (I.e. iPhone). GP is saying that it is not if, but when, China will have attained the baseline IP to spend remaining efforts on exceeding foreign innovation and using their domestic manufacturing capabilities to deliver on them.
Currently the “trade war” just attacks Chinese companies that have done exactly what I described above (Huawei being a primary example) - claiming cybercrimes, arresting executives, slamming lawsuits, barring imports, etc.
Manufacturing is not a switch that can be turned back. America had severe oversight when allowing our manufacturing capacity to head south to Mexico and east to China. We are pretending the trade war is the US “sticking it” to China. But in reality China has all the cards in this war - the US is bluffing to its citizens; the economy of the coming decades will be on China’s terms.
you're exactly right. although i think the oversight was coupled with greed. corporations in the u.s. began a race to the bottom in terms of manufacturing cost, and now we're paying for both incompetent oversight and greed. consumers are to blame as well, but that blame is hard to place when consumers in the middle and lower class are getting squeezed in every direction.
it's very disappointing that the u.s. took this turn.
It will not stop, as you have said, they copied and improved. I have said it before, the Chinese are excellent engineers, but they lack in originality. So they NEED the rest of the world to make original stuff they can copy and improve upon this. Again this is not taking away from the fact they have brillant people, it is just what they do.
As for quality, buy something as simple as a geniune arduino and buy a Chinese knockoff. Which is more reliable. I have a ton of knockoffs and i'd say about 50% fail in a few months (plus they arrive with flux coating the bottom, some wont even work until it is cleaned). The few geniune ones i have purchased are still rolling along. I find this with a lot of their cheap knockoffs (yet i still buy them.......).
But see, this is a great microcosm for the macro situation.
Correct me if I am wrong, but you are purchasing items which you know to be knockoffs because they are cheap. You don't want to pay the full amount for the genuine article and yet you (rightfully) criticize the low quality and longevity of the knockoffs. Aren't you getting exactly what you paid for?
There’s a big misconception about manufacturing jobs. Yes, China did take them, but only by outbidding our efforts at automation and robotics. There is no way America has the headcount nor efficiency (no American would work to live at the level of a Chinese factory worker) to match the human labor costs of China. Therefore if labor does move back to the US we’d just invest heavily in automation to compensate. Those jobs were long gone, and they’re either going to be done by a cheap robot or cheap person in a developing country.
China is automating as well. I bet they’re not thinking “well, why bother trying to be the destination for offshoring, we’re gonna automate it anyway”. No, they understand strategic technologies, economic positioning, trade deficits, keeping people employed, etc.
Also, on-shoring and automation would make our workers more productive and thus be compensated better and reverse the decline in real earnings since the 80s.
China has to automate not just because of labor costs, but the products themselves often suck when made manually. Take for example Toyota: considered a decent car in Japan and the USA where Toyota factories are extremely automated, but falls apart in China because they are made largely by hand.
> Also, on-shoring and automation would make our workers more productive and thus be compensated better and reverse the decline in real earnings since the 80s.
Productivity would go up for sure, it isn't clear that the workers would realize those gains, however, as the productivity increase is largely coming from capital (in a purely capitalistic society, capital reaps the benefits of capital). Additionally, far fewer of those workers are needed to make the same amount of product.
More productive blue-collar work is good though, because it results in two things:
- a path to higher earnings for those without college-level education, slowing if not eliminating the hollowing out of a lot of traditional "middle class" jobs
- said workers will also result in additional money flowing through the economy. Lower earning workers spend more of their income on goods and services as opposed to savings, boosting the economy. It's why Ford paid his workers enough to be able to afford his cars, a crazy idea at the time; a healthy middle class is one that can spend money on further things. The increasing economic inequality in America has mostly resulted in lower-earning workers using credit to try and replace middle-class earning power, and we saw how well that turned out the last recession.
From a different point of view, almost everyone has made a lot of money on the current relationship, Chinese and Americans, so why mess up a good thing? Even with the ownership requirements, IP transfer, market access, and IP theft that occurs, this has still been incredibly profitable for American companies and multi-nationals, so there wasn't much pressure to bring an axe down on China. The same goes with Mexico and pretty much every other trade partner.
However, some people didn't win out, and in fact lost out significantly because of all this globalization: American blue collar workers. These people became disgruntled, elected a rightist populist nationalist to the presidency, and now they want change. In reality, it wasn't just China doing them in, but China (and Mexico and immigrants) make great scapegoats for those rightists, ATM.
Businesses made a killing, yes, short and mid term. Long term it’s looking bad, unless there’s change in that relationship. For workers it was a loss. Be they Democrats or Republicans, black or white.
Democrats up until the 80s were on the side of the workers, so these were traditionally democratic constituencies, but the Dems and Repubs earlier, sold them out to big business and the promise of globalization.
To call them rightists is short sighted. If these were Brazilians in Brazil or Mexicans in Mexico being sold out en masse, they too would have voted for someone who would take up their cause because the traditional parties had long ago abandoned them except for some pro forma pandering (we like unions, we stand behind unions, etc.)
Right now only likes of Trump and Sanders have the desire to actually do things for them, albeit perhaps very differently.
> Long term it’s looking bad, unless there’s change in that relationship.
Long term nothing gets worse. Yes, China perhaps becomes Japan eventually, but look where that has gone after the paranoia of the 1980s. Completely survivable and for the most part a net positive.
Japan could never surpass us. They were limited by population. Also, while unfair in trade and access, for the most the rest of their trade practices were within the bounds. They also were not looking to be hegemonic and were and are very cooperative with regard to defense.
Never the less, as it regards China, we should bring up and address the issue of unfair trade, theft and other practices detrimental to our economy. Detrimental to our workforce, detrimental to their ecology and world ecology, even their own workers. Being a “good guy” unilaterally (in trade, whatever) only works when others are willing to reciprocate. This hasn’t been the case so far.
It's unsustainable. Trump's broader trade policy is protectionist. But the reason his China policy finds firmer footing than e.g. his Mexico tariffs come from China's abuse of several good-faith measures over the past 30 years (e.g. early accession to the WTO). It was plausible to assume the next leader would be another Deng. But when Xi ensconced himself as a "leader for life" [1], the timing calculus changed.
Photographic film was making real money in the 1980s. Doesn't mean it was a sustainable business.
Sometimes, short-term tactical pain is necessary for strategic gain.
> Xi is messed up for a lot of reasons, but this isn't really one of them
Dictatorships, like it or not, are common in our world. So I agree, it's tough to objectively call it messed up. There are, however, patterns in dictatorships' behaviors. Common incentive structures priorities their mortal leader's interests over the immortal country's.
Before China was a dictatorship, it didn't make sense to treat it like one. One's strategy, however, must adapt when the board changes.
It's unsustainable. Trump's broader trade policy is protectionist.
The US has become overly reliant on China, add on their Belt and Road Initiative, and we should be taking a more aggressive stance. Trade wont last forever with us and we will not have any industrial infrastructure left. this is trying to protect ourselves.
I find it funny half the US wants higher minimum wages and better standards of living here, but complain when prices go up for cheap stuff from China being made by near slave labor in oppressed conditions. I guess out of sight, out of mind.
So unilaterally imposing tariffs on China, Mexico, Canada, and possibly EU, instead of using the WTO or working with America's allies (TPP), is a best way of making China play fair?
Is it the best? I don’t know. I don’t agree with how some of it has been done, but I agree something hadn’t been addressed which needed addressing years ago. W/re WTO they are already as is violating it, so how do you suppose “more WTO” will make it work?
Didn’t Canada, the EU and Mexico have tariffs on US products before Trump? Importing clothing, computers and similar goods into Mexico has always faced stiff taxes. Milk into Canada, heavily taxed. American cars and motorcycles in Europe, also taxed. The idea that Trump invented protectionist tariffs is ridiculous. Korea also has had significant tariffs and their cousin, quotas. Try to import rice into Korea, it’s heavily taxed, American beef as well. It’s almost impossible to buy an American car in Korea as well. The pots are meeting the kettle and the kettle is willing to be a lot more black than it used to be.
The occasion political content here that's often just fox news level "we're the good guys" talking points makes me question the objectivity of the rest of the tech content.
That explanation simply doesn't tally with the facts. Trump isn't singling out China - he's also imposing substantial tariffs on Canada, Mexico and the EU. Have they been flouting the laws of international trade?
A far more straightforward explanation is that Trump's trade policy is a) protectionist and b) a means of imposing regressive tax increases by stealth.
It's a response to China not fulfilling their promises and not playing fair. IP theft, lack of market access, the benefits they receive of being labeled a third world country, possible currency manipulation, the list goes on.
It may be disagreeable to this administration's approach but there is bipartisan and foreign support for addressing China. Personally, I agree and rather see tariffs implemented now rather than continuing the status quo.
Terrorism, hard drugs, the Soviet Empire with 1000's of nuclear warheads on the table, and every nation draw into the post-WW2 vacuum ... are not 'fetishes'.
There are very real and material issues between the US and China with respect to governmental intervention, externalization of costs, theft of IP, anti-competitive acts, capital controls, state-sponsored espionage, politicization of monetary policy - etc..
It's a wide and expansive set of issues that were essentially ignored for 30 years because it didn't so much matter, moreover, it was probably beneficial for everyone anyhow for China to have done what it did (except obviously the environmental and humanitarian externalizations).
But China wants to play in the advanced league now, so a different set of rules is going to have to apply, or there'll have to be permanent tariffs.
Trump is playing mostly 'big stick' and not nuance on this, but it seems to actually be working, and many of his would-be detractors (me included?), particularly the Dems are quiet on the issue because everyone has wanted to take up this issue for some time, but nobody has the power to.
Every foreign office in the West right now has a big 'China file' of issue to contend with, and they're all happy this is happening on some level.
I'm not hugely hopeful there will be big reforms anywhere, I think we're going to see tariffs on a bunch of things, but that won't be so bad.
In the grand-grand scheme of things I don't think the end result will be hugely noticeable to most people.
Trump is convinced that the Chinese have been robbing America blind for decades with lopsided trade agreements which favor Beijing.
Specifically, they're worried that the dollars we're buying Chinese products with are being used to purchase liquid American assets, instead of re-investing in America by purchasing commodity items. The Trump administration believes that China is using these funds to slowly "buy up America" [1]
One thing he's missing out on is the fact that the Chinese government has devalued their own currency for about as long as they've been buying America specifically to keep the dollar strong. There is no way to convert Chinese currency into many other international currencies. For example, for a long time there was no way to turn Chinese money into Japanese money. To accomplish this investors would buy American dollars with Chinese currency, then use the American dollars to buy Japanese currency. This has held the dollar higher in value compared to other, less compatible currencies. Devaluing also helps keep Chinese buying power out of the hands of the Chinese public and into the hands of Chinese billionaire class, who strictly deal in American cash. Hurting the Chinese dollar doesn't impact the Chinese economy nearly as much as hurting the American dollar does.
So our trade war is doing two things. 1) It's pushing China to the table. 2) It's making China reconsider it's reliance on the status quo (The American dollar). If China were to correct the value of their currency; almost overnight the Chinese population would be sipping Starbucks and typing on MacBook Pro's while American's slave away at factories with suicide netting before going home to sleep in dog kennel's.
> One thing he's missing out on is the fact that the Chinese government has devalued their own currency for about as long as they've been buying America specifically to keep the dollar strong.
No, no, no, the opposite is true: China has spent a lot of effort, ever since the Asian Financial Crisis, in keeping their currency strong and appreciating, the exact opposite of devaluation. They are currently in a huge struggle to prevent the yuan from crossing the 7RMB/dollar threshold, which many think will cause a panic when crossed.
> There is no way to convert Chinese currency into many other international currencies.
There surely is a way! I converted most of my earning from RMB to dollars before I left China (just show them my tax receipts as a foreigner), my wife had a $50k/year limit as well as a Chinese citizen.
There are many reasons why this is screwed up, but mostly the opposite from what you are claiming. The yuan is stronger, not weaker, than it ought to be, which leads to a lot of opposing distortions in their economy (not ours).
> If China were to correct the value of their currency...
If it falls above 7 and even back to 8, then we will be back to the early 2000s.
That's exactly correct. There is this notion that the American economy is larger than the Chinese economy, when in fact this is only a product of the strategic and constant devaluation of the Yuan with respect to the dollar. This has only been allowed by the Chinese because they haven't completed the process of moving their surplus to their own economy. In this decade we have already seen the Chinese moving their surplus to create a strong internal economy and when this process is complete they will have every incentive to stop supporting the US dollar and to stop devaluing the Yuan.
There are different ways of measuring how large an economy is.
How much of the US economy is Wall Street and real estate? Does that really deserve to be 'GDP' as nothing is actually made?
Some say that a large finance sector and a rentier class is a burden to the main economy. It is hard to deny even if there is the 'trickledown' effect from the 1%.
What about militarism?
The trillions spent on war is supposed to be good for the economy but I don't see it myself. If all those bullets had been batteries for electric cars then the USA could have sold those electric cars to places like Libya, Iraq and elsewhere blown off the map or crippled with sanctions.
In China, regardless of whether they have stolen IP or not, they do actually make stuff. Making stuff definitely counts as GDP. Chinese folk are industrious and 'lazy' is not a word uttered in the context of China, even by the haters. I don't get the feeling that the Chinese economy has developed to the late capitalist stage where everyone who works is paying off rentseekers, monopolists and usurers. For this reason I think the Chinese economy is a lot stronger than the American one even if the GDP metric would lead one to believe otherwise.
I also think China are leapfrogging the USA when it comes to education. STEM subjects rule in China, they don't in the USA. When it comes to the fundamentals China is on to something. I am not sure USA Inc has a plan for the future.
Exactly. The main point is that the groups that control the US have steered the country towards doing things that are great for the elites but terrible for the population. Banking is excellent for the wealthy portion of the country, but works as a drag on the population elsewhere because banks live off interest and fees, i.e., they subtract from the real economy. Healthcare is now a big portion of the US economy, but it is in fact another big drag on the living standards of its population. Real estate is the sister industry of banking, and as real estate costs escalate this means a reduction of wealth from poorer people to the wealthy and the banks.
This is a very salient point and I'm surprised it was down-voted (it might be because your point #2 could be perceived as being needlessly provocative).
One has to wonder why the U.S refuses to brand China a currency manipulator [1]. You have already stated the answer, but it's worth repeating: it is in the best interest of U.S corporations importing goods from China for the Yuan to be artificially weak. As always, the truth depends on whether one stands to benefit from it or not.
Rest assured that the moment this is not longer the case, the U.S won't hesitate to point the finger and dole out punishment accordingly.
i am not for sure why you are downvoted. i hadn't heard of china devaluing their yuan, but the way you have explained it makes sense. china does indeed seem to be buying a ton of western assets, including real estate and major holdings in companies.
if i am understanding correctly, you are saying china is basically keeping the yuan quiet while they get their economy in the shape they want, benefiting from a strong u.s. dollar. then when the time is right, they'll switch to promoting their own concurrency over the u.s. dollar.
It’s a good question, and one has to wonder why issues such as ownership requirements, IP transfer, IP theft and market access have never been made an issue of until now. The answer is that American corporations have benefited immensely from doing business in China over the last 30 years, regardless of these issues. It cannot be denied that American corporations are some of the largest and most profitable businesses this planet has ever seen, much of which can be traced back to its outsourcing of labor/manufacturing to China. Anything that even minutely threatens to disrupt these absurd profits is perceived as an existential threat.
This white paper [1] from a large private equity / investment banking firm can at least partially provide a glimpse into what is going on right now. The current situation has its roots in the financial crisis of 08-09, the repercussions of which nearly brought China to its knees.
The key takeaways are that China’s reliance on global trade has been declining consistently since the financial crisis. The GFC made them realize the systemic risk posed by the reliance on external demand and ever since then, the central government has made a conscious decision to shift towards insourcing goods and services.
Pre-2007, there existed a symbiotic relationship between China and the US whereby China exported goods to America in return for US dollars, which it then in turn used to buy hundreds of billions of dollars worth of US Bonds. It was a win-win situation: China benefits by profiting off of exports, America benefits with cheap goods, access to cheap and highly available credit and a very strong dollar. Now that China is focused on recycling surpluses into its own economy (for example, by moving up the supply chain into higher value-added exports previously dominated by American corporations), this symbiotic relationship is being tested.
The fact is, the trade deficit (that has been characterized by Trump as "stealing" from America, a laughable notion), actually shrinks to almost nothing when adjusted for services and goods manufactured and sold by US firms in China [1, ex.16]. This is comparing four categories of goods and services exchanged between the US and China (1: services sold through subsidiaries, 2: services imports, 3: goods through subsidiaries and 4: goods through trade), which is a much more complete and honest comparison than simply focusing on goods sold through trade alone.
When adjusted for U.S sales of goods and services within China, the trade deficit actually amounts to a US _surplus_ of something in the ballpark 20B a year [1, ex.17]. The problem is, this headline is not nearly as polarizing as the headline “China has taken advantage of the United States and cheated the American people for far too long”. It also shifts the blame for the current wealth disparity in America from where it belongs (American corporate greed) squarely onto the shoulders of China, the convenient scapegoat and whipping boy du jour.
All this is not to say China is without fault and completely innocent of certain accusations. There are many other factors also involved. However, I believe what I've mentioned above can explain the lion's share of it.
It's not that there aren't real issues, but the American attitude is strange due to Trump seeming mostly interested in political benefits at home, rather than actual economic gains.
American economic gains are political benefits. But to get there, trade might have to go through a tougher period. It’s a long game rather than simply looking for quick political wins. When the EU tariffs were proposed, EU leaders were really quick to come to the bargaining table, while before that, America just endured whatever tariffs the EU cooked up.
You're completely right. The "trade war" is something that came out of Trump's sick mind, influenced by Bannon. Not only a trade war is stupid, because it hurts the US economy, it is also morally unjustified: the US has spent the last 100 years or more preaching open markets. The thing that makes me more sick is seeing that the US-based media buys the whole argument and runs with it without critically analyzing what they're doing. In fact the biggest power Trump has is to plant an idea in the minds of journalists and let them run and expand on that idea without ever criticizing what they're doing.
"The "trade war" is something that came out of Trump's sick mind, influenced by Bannon."
This is incorrect. Peter Navarro is the main driver for addressing China's practices. He wrote the book on it.
"it is also morally unjustified: the US has spent the last 100 years or more preaching open markets."
China's markets are not open? How many foreign companies had to do 51/49 split ventures to access Chinese markets? Do you think they wanted do that? Do you honestly think that is 'open'?
War probably. The issue with disconnecting our economy from China is there will no longer be anything stopping a full fledged war in the South China Sea
A direct war (even conventional warfare, which can quickly escalate) between nuclear-armed states could be the demise of mankind. Please remember that.
It wouldn't be a direct war in the sense everyone is thinking. The US has several strategies published regarding war with China with the most likely strategy being one of containment, not outright invasion. I'm saying that the open markets and globalization that has happened over the last several decades (And is now being reversed) is the reason we have had relative peace (No war between larger powers) since WWII
I don’t think so. That would be akin to the USSR falling for SDI and our military build up. I mean, if they took that approach it would be very counterproductive to their progress.
Absolutely nobody wants open war between nuclear superpowers.
Endless, nebulous, low-intensity wars in third-world nations, or proxy wars like Korea and Vietnam, sure. Those feed jingoism without endangering the ruling class or their interests. What you're talking about is very different. Even the most callous leader really doesn't want to find out what happens if they start World War III.
Why do people think I'm asking for war with China? Obviously nobody wants it but also you shouldn't bury your head in the sand and ignore the consequences of the US and China separating their economies. Trade and business between the US and China is what has been preventing any new war. We were at war with China in Korea and that was fairly recently. It would be a proxy war and would probably happen in Taiwan, Korea, etc. with both the US and China arming and supporting different sides
This is not WWII anymore. An open war between two nuclear powers like the US and China would be the end of the world as we know it. This would not be a win to the US or to anyone else. Moreover the Chinese are not pushing for war in any way.
Not really. We got lucky last time. It is not given. Given the advantages the U.S. has over nuclear weapons, there is a big asymmetry here (not to say symmetry is more stable, but to layman's eye it intuitively feels so).
Worst case, Trump has 1.5 or 5.5 years left in office, depending on if he is re-elected. (He could also die in office) The next president will change things. I can't tell you what, it could be a small change, it could be big.
I don't think this is very related to the trade war, as it is hurting a Chinese company just as badly as an American one.