I do not believe an UBI on the level of an livable income will increase labor participation.
The linked study suggests that an increase of income for low income households will lead to a higher overall demand and therefore to an increased economic activity and a larger labor force. However I would predict an increase in labor costs in particular for the minimum wage sector. (People who aren't so concerned about feeding themselves won't take odd jobs so easily.) Companies will restructure towards less labor intensive processes and overall labor participation will decrease.
That said I believe the UBI has to come at some point:
I believe the economy of the 21th century can be described between three groups of people.
- Directors: (CEOs, Managers, Investors ...) those who own or at least direct the "means of production" which are largely automated.
- Digital Creatives: (Scientists, (Open Source) Programmers, Journalists, Digital Artists ...) those who "create" information and whose end product can easily and essentially without cost be copied and distributed.
- Service personel: (Servers, maids, nurses, butlers ...) Those who essentially "sell" human interaction. Their jobs largely could be automated, but humans value human interaction too much.
Firstly barring strong policies against it people without education (and some with education) will be marginalized and pressured into more and more precarious service jobs and this will lead to social unrest. UBI is an effective (but maybe not efficient) means against this effect and thereby stabilizing society in the long term.
Secondly I am convinced, that any market economy resembling the current one values the work of digital creatives very inefficiently.
Currently there is (to varying degrees in the subfields) an attention or fame economy where the work is often not valued by skill, but by luck and self presentation. Additionally sufficient success to live from their work is often to uncertain, to engage in the attempt. This is especially deplorable since such work has often strong compositional or cross inspirational effects. The UBI would allow digital creatives to publish their work freely without the need to rely on monetarization. This would in my eyes be the driving factor for entrepreneurial growth due to an UBI but it is a long term effect and very hard to measure.
I do not believe an UBI on the level of an livable income will increase labor participation. The linked study suggests that an increase of income for low income households will lead to a higher overall demand and therefore to an increased economic activity and a larger labor force. However I would predict an increase in labor costs in particular for the minimum wage sector. (People who aren't so concerned about feeding themselves won't take odd jobs so easily.) Companies will restructure towards less labor intensive processes and overall labor participation will decrease.
That said I believe the UBI has to come at some point:
I believe the economy of the 21th century can be described between three groups of people.
Firstly barring strong policies against it people without education (and some with education) will be marginalized and pressured into more and more precarious service jobs and this will lead to social unrest. UBI is an effective (but maybe not efficient) means against this effect and thereby stabilizing society in the long term.Secondly I am convinced, that any market economy resembling the current one values the work of digital creatives very inefficiently. Currently there is (to varying degrees in the subfields) an attention or fame economy where the work is often not valued by skill, but by luck and self presentation. Additionally sufficient success to live from their work is often to uncertain, to engage in the attempt. This is especially deplorable since such work has often strong compositional or cross inspirational effects. The UBI would allow digital creatives to publish their work freely without the need to rely on monetarization. This would in my eyes be the driving factor for entrepreneurial growth due to an UBI but it is a long term effect and very hard to measure.