I recently had this realization experience with large TVs at Bestbuy. I went to purchase a 65" tv after Christmas hoping to score a great deal. I tried haggling with a few 'important looking' staffers, and they basically said 'ok let me know which one you want, and we will grab it for you.' No give on price. I asked if they had a certain tv in stock, and the young man walked to the back of house area, and I peaked inside. Huge shelves totally full of TVs. I had the 'Tesla Short' thought process of, oh wow, they have a ton of TVs to unload. Moreover, I thought I should be able to strike a deep discount.
When the rep returned, I asked if they were backed up with TVs, to which he replied, "no, this is pretty typical, we will move most of those in a week." I gave up my haggle (after an hour of grilling the sales guys on difference and tv trends and crap). they didnt budge. While I was waiting in line to pay and get someone to load my tv into my car, I watched TV after TV roll out the front door.
A huge stockpile of vehicle inventory could mean a major sales collapse. It could also mean $45mm ready to flow into the Tesla bank account in the next week. The stockpile information by itself doesn't tell you much beyond that there are loads of cars sitting at the dock.
EDIT: I mean, just look at the staggering number of vehicles at Hyundai's Georgia Plant (MOBIS). They even have cars parked in the grass! Tesla's Fremont plant doesn't really have finished product storage at this scale.
I think you could test this hypothesis by comparing Tesla’s inventory dollar amount per average units sold to other car manufacturers. You would need to adjust for the higher price of Tesla models. Maybe dividing total inventory dollars by average model price then dividing that by average units sold would get us there.
When the rep returned, I asked if they were backed up with TVs, to which he replied, "no, this is pretty typical, we will move most of those in a week." I gave up my haggle (after an hour of grilling the sales guys on difference and tv trends and crap). they didnt budge. While I was waiting in line to pay and get someone to load my tv into my car, I watched TV after TV roll out the front door.
A huge stockpile of vehicle inventory could mean a major sales collapse. It could also mean $45mm ready to flow into the Tesla bank account in the next week. The stockpile information by itself doesn't tell you much beyond that there are loads of cars sitting at the dock.
EDIT: I mean, just look at the staggering number of vehicles at Hyundai's Georgia Plant (MOBIS). They even have cars parked in the grass! Tesla's Fremont plant doesn't really have finished product storage at this scale.
https://www.google.com/maps/place/MOBIS+Alabama,+LLC+-+Georg...