I think this is a classic example of hacker (or tech-savy types in general) having a very different experience than the rest of the population. For example, do you know when more households had DVD players than had VCRs? If you said Q3 2006, you win! (http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/nielsen-study-shows-...)
If you're the typical tech-savy type, that fact probably seems rather unbelievable. Almost as unbelievable as the idea that most people stuck with AOL precisely for the walled garden. I mean, it make sense...Facebook's rise is because of, not in spite of, AOL's decline. Same as the iTunes App Store is more successful than the Android store (never mind the handsets, the app store contest still seems to be a very one-sided ordeal).
AOL's big flaw was that they thought their major offering was a dial-up internet connection. What they didn't see was that their main product was actually just the walled garden internet experience that most people (i.e. not the tech savvy types) were looking for. If they had realized that, then AOL could have been the Facebook of today. So, in a way...I guess Facebook is becoming the new AOL, but that's probably not a bad thing!
"In the end, AOL’s walled garden became irrelevant as people discovered the Web had so much more to offer than the limited view offered by AOL."
This analysis is totally off the mark.
What killed AOL largely was its inability to provide broadband to American consumers. The phone and cable companies cut them off. This was before multiple DSL providers were available at a given address.
If AOL had the means to provide broadband nationwide, this could have turned out totally differently.
Obviously, this point in history does not apply to facebook, thus it is harder to imagine such an impetus that would cause users to leave the service in droves.
If you're the typical tech-savy type, that fact probably seems rather unbelievable. Almost as unbelievable as the idea that most people stuck with AOL precisely for the walled garden. I mean, it make sense...Facebook's rise is because of, not in spite of, AOL's decline. Same as the iTunes App Store is more successful than the Android store (never mind the handsets, the app store contest still seems to be a very one-sided ordeal).
AOL's big flaw was that they thought their major offering was a dial-up internet connection. What they didn't see was that their main product was actually just the walled garden internet experience that most people (i.e. not the tech savvy types) were looking for. If they had realized that, then AOL could have been the Facebook of today. So, in a way...I guess Facebook is becoming the new AOL, but that's probably not a bad thing!