Alexa is just an input/output device. It is limited, which is OK but that means there will not be a 'runaway hit'. There's just not enough of a surface area for something so comprehensive.
It's like saying 'There are 80k mouse enabled apps and no runaway hit'.
What it can do is have an app for nearly anything, though, that makes sense for the form factor. It's on its way. The next step of its evolution is to look at what apps work and what conventions can be pulled from those as a general standard. Users will be much happier when they can nearly instantly download an Alexa enabled interface for an app and have it work intuitively. And this is doubly important for Alexa because there isn't deep feedback like you have with a mouse where you can see the things you aren't doing to gather hints at what's possible -- you just have to know or, at least know how to find the answer, like a command line.
Which gives me an idea 'man for Alexa'. At least we can standardize a help menu.
But the mouse does have a runaway hit: Microsoft Windows.
That being said, it took 22 years to get from Engelbart's original mouse to the first version of Windows that really took off (3.0), so perhaps we're just too early on in this product cycle for the hit to have emerged yet.
I'd say the Alexa is more like birth of the personal computer. Computers weren't very good in the mid 1970's.
Now that companies realize there's a product here, there will be an arm's race. Look for big improvements in next decade. Lots of people and billions of dollars are about to go into making these products better.
To take this analogy further, it is interesting that by say 1976, we seem to have already realized that what you need to make voice devices actually useful is a screen and a GUI.
>I'd say the Alexa is more like birth of the personal computer.
There were advancements in Text-To-Speech and/or speech recognition, stretching back to the early days of PC/Mac e.g. DragonDictate[1] using Hidden Markov Models, IBM ViaVoice[2], latterly Nuance Dragon NaturallySpeaking[3]. Although, they were not perfect in their early iterations. However, they got progressively better and fairly impressive once trained properly.
I would rather draw comparisons with their current day counterparts like Amazon Polly or Lyrebird[4] et al., than associate voice assistants with a paradigm shift.
At any rate, being connected to the cloud will allow for faster iteration. Once it becomes a solved problem, then you can more easily remove the network.
That’s why you don’t see rapid iteration in the rest of the world.
Google, Apple, Amazon can update their voice devices continuously without a local software release. If the next generation voice algorithms needs twice as much hardware, your $30 device will still work because the processing is in the cloud.
Video games, for example, have been trying to move to the cloud. Put all the code in the cloud and just send the pixels
I don't want rapid (rabid?) iteration, I want shit that works.
"The cloud" is little more than a hyped-up, glorified business objective; human beings shouldn't have to be connected to the hive mind to enjoy the full benefits of technology. Nothing smacks of SV-style elitism more than the proliferation of "the cloud"
And you can pry my locally-installed videogames from my cold-dead hands. I hope every single streaming startup in that sector fails spectacularly.
Which is fine, as my life is perfectly great without. I like your assumption that all innovation is supposedly good...
And it's 100 million amazon devices because Amazon pushes them relentlessly and has been for some time. Their utility is questionable, even the article mentions that.
> Alexa is just an input/output device. It is limited, which is OK but that means there will not be a 'runaway hit'.
I like the way you say that. My Google Home is a remote control for my mouth. It's like licking a keyboard one key at a time in the dark. Simple queries are easy, but any non-trivial query just aint't gonna happen at the moment.
I don't believe your comparison really works. A mouse is useless on its own. An Alexa device can operate on its own.
I do agree with your latter sentiment. It does feel like a command line at times. More so like trying to figure out a text adventure game. Zork would be very difficult if you didn't know the basic functions/words. That's what Alexa feels like most of the time for me. I'd love a help menu.
It's more useful with third-party apps but those are still a part of the Alexa system. That's like saying a computer is useless without software installed. I wouldnt use my computer very often if I wasnt able to install software but that doesnt mean it isnt functional without it.
Plus you would still have the entire Amazon app ecosystem. While their apps may not seem perfect they do have a free music section that could at least partially replace spotify.
Other first-party apps on Alexa allow you to access lot's of other Amazon services like purchasing items from their website. That's a lot of functionality even if we are excluding third-party applications.
That's the thing about USPs...most are idealized possibilities not yet realized.
I mean, look at VR and AR and, hell, even AI.
But AI is not useless even though it hasn't reached it generalized intelligence promise. It is adding tremendous value even though it has landed in the limited middle.
I don't mind learning Alexa's syntax and what it expects of me. I get value from what it can do well. As long as that's true, I think it can miss its more grandiose promises and still be a huge success.
It's like saying 'There are 80k mouse enabled apps and no runaway hit'.
What it can do is have an app for nearly anything, though, that makes sense for the form factor. It's on its way. The next step of its evolution is to look at what apps work and what conventions can be pulled from those as a general standard. Users will be much happier when they can nearly instantly download an Alexa enabled interface for an app and have it work intuitively. And this is doubly important for Alexa because there isn't deep feedback like you have with a mouse where you can see the things you aren't doing to gather hints at what's possible -- you just have to know or, at least know how to find the answer, like a command line.
Which gives me an idea 'man for Alexa'. At least we can standardize a help menu.