The argument was not that X phone on carrier Y will be dominant but that the Android OS in general would be.
Two years is a pretty short time frame in the grand scheme of things, MySpace was dominant in 2006 but it wasn't an overnight switch to Facebook. My whole point is that things continue to change, there is no winner if the race never ends.
Most phones in the US have 1 or 2 year contracts with ETFs. Outside the US, the unsubsidized phone price is quite expensive, rougly to $500-$600 USD.
What I'm saying is your comparison doesn't really apply. It's actually even worse than the "Apple vs. Microsoft 2.0" or "Open vs. Closed" debates.