> In the very simplest example, there is no AI that understands natural language.
Come on, now - understanding natural language is pretty much the 0 yard line when it comes to AGI, the fact that it's not solved now doesn't tell us anything about how far away it is.
And I'd be on the lookout for massive advances in NLP over the next couple of years; there have been enormous leaps in 2018 alone when it comes to how good we are at understanding text (better applications of transformer models, high quality pre-trained base models, etc.), and now that there have been a few high-profile successes we're likely to see that field evolve just like computer vision has, even though I grant that it's a much harder problem in general.
Come on, now - understanding natural language is pretty much the 0 yard line when it comes to AGI, the fact that it's not solved now doesn't tell us anything about how far away it is.
And I'd be on the lookout for massive advances in NLP over the next couple of years; there have been enormous leaps in 2018 alone when it comes to how good we are at understanding text (better applications of transformer models, high quality pre-trained base models, etc.), and now that there have been a few high-profile successes we're likely to see that field evolve just like computer vision has, even though I grant that it's a much harder problem in general.