I would add to this that Autopilot is great in stop-and-go traffic. It makes an annoying situation so much more pleasant when the car is doing all the stopping and going for you.
Those are the simplest two situations and were already well handled by driving assistance years ago (adaptive cruise control dates back to the late 90s, lane assistance the early aughts, jam automation is probably the youngest with the first live products maybe 5 years back or so?)
> That is kind of deal breaker for me, when talking about 1+ ton metal box moving me around I will take "slow to market but not blind" instead.
The way Elon Musk tells it, they put it into production once it was safer per mile than human drivers. Which seems like a legitimate point.
You use something when it's better than what you would have to use in the alternative, not when it's 100% perfect with no possibility of ever making a mistake under any circumstances. Which is probably not even actually possible to do.
The problem is if human drivers kill more than 30,000 people in a year, it's not news, because it's been that way forever. But one autonomous car kills one person and it's the top story.
> The way Elon Musk tells it, they put it into production once it was safer per mile than human drivers.
I'd caution you against believing anything that he says. It's easy to extract from the data an unfair comparison that shows the group with Tesla AP being safer, but comparing it against cars in totally different driving context or against the safety of motorcycles is just completely deceptive. The stats indicate that Tesla w/AP enabled on freeways is less safe than Tesla w/o AP enabled on freeways.
> Last I checked insurance companies gave a discount for AP Tesla’s over non AP Tesla’s suggesting the opposite. Do you some support backing this up?
That's all marketing fluff.
The only U.S. insurance company offering such a discount is some random startup insurance company available to only a small percent of the population. The company is about 2 years old, requires significant tracking of your driving behavior, and it's entirely unclear why they are offering the discount.
The only UK insurance company offering such a discount said “it was too early to say whether the use of the autopilot system produced a safety record that justified lower premiums. It said it was charging less to encourage use of the system and aid research.” It made this decision working closely together with Tesla, it wasn't based on any actuarial data.
According to the article at [1] which another user just showed me, Liberty Mutual is one of the insurance companies, which absolutely doesn't fit your description.
Also, from that article, it looks like the NHTSA found that crashes were 40% lower in cars with autopilot. [2] I don't know enough about insurance and how it works to know if that counts at all, but it shows that it's not all marketing fluff.
FWIW, it's not Tesla-specific. Many luxury cars have similar features to Autopilot and get similar discounts for them.
"Liberty Mutual Insurance offers discounts for various electronic safety features; such as Adaptive Cruise Control, Adaptive Headlights, Collision Preparation Systems (including automatic braking), Blind Spot Warning, Lane Departure Warning and Rear-View Cameras"
I'd guess that's due more to Teslas being expensive cars that are generally driven by older, more responsible drivers and have a bunch of other safety features (AEB, stability control, etc.)
I'd be interested in seeing crash data for Teslas compared with other $50-$130k cars less than 5 years old.
There's no need to guess, the study was actually done on Teslas with and without AP hardware.
I don't know it well enough to know if there were other factors at play, but it wasn't just that Teslas in general were less likely to crash, only the ones with AP hardware installed.
How? I'm not trying to instigate something here, but a quick search of this isn't showing anything except a bunch of groaning about how unfair it is that Tesla gets all kinds of tax breaks for its cars because it's the only one selling electric at any kind of scale.
That doesn't say they subsidized it, just that they are working with some insurance companies.
I thought subsidize meant that they would be basically paying the difference.
If there's no money changing hands in this partnership, then either the insurance companies are really dumb and are just throwing money away, or there's some truth to the stats that tesla keeps bringing up (40% fewer crashes in cars with autopilot) (or there's something else i'm missing!)
> Last I checked insurance companies gave a discount for AP Tesla’s over non AP Tesla’s suggesting the opposite. Do you some support backing this up?
Insurance companies may do this because it is a strong signal the customer is gullible to questionable upsells. Maybe they've found that statistically they can sell them more things like overpriced umbrella insurance through direct mail marketing pack ins with their car insurance bill.
> The way Elon Musk tells it, they put it into production once it was safer per mile than human drivers. Which seems like a legitimate point.
It's also only used/active when it is reasonably able to work. Therefore the miles used are inherently better/safer as it is (much less whiteout / torrential AP driving).
This is a luxury human drivers do not have, short of "do not drive those miles at all".
I have always hated this metric. It's disingenuous, and selective.
Precisely. During one nasty ice storm at night I might see more wrecked cars in a single hour than I see the rest of the year combined. And no currently available automation system would dare operate in those conditions, so human drivers take a huge statistical hit from conditions like that but the computers don't. All of these 'safer than humans' metrics are apples to oranges.
So look to other metrics, like the effect on crashes before and after the introduction of the autopilot feature. But those also show a safety improvement.
They may not be taking the hardest miles, but the only way to improve the overall average is to be doing better than the status quo on the miles they are taking.
> they put it into production once it was safer per mile than human drivers
The thing is that I can take precautions to increase my safety margin - don't drive impaired, drive in good weather conditions, get lots of sleep, don't be aggressive, don't follow closely, etc. etc. etc.
I don't have a Tesla, but I imagine there's nothing I can do to voluntarily make it safer. It functions normally until it doesn't.
You can pay attention and keep your hands on the wheel. From what I know all the people who had accidents failed to do this. The challenge seems to be how to overcome the false sense of security drivers get, precisely because the thing works so well most of the time.
> "You can pay attention and keep your hands on the wheel."
In that sense these Level 2 systems are a lot like q-tips. The box says you shouldn't stick them in your ear, but everybody knows that's what you buy them for. If everybody were to follow the directions, the consumer desirability of the product would plummet.
Even though you're not supposed to take your hands off the wheel, level 2 systems are often referred to as "hands off". And during a 60 Minutes interview Elon Musk is seen taking his hands off the wheel. Unofficially the point of Level 2 automation is that you can take your hands off the wheel. Officially, your hands must remain on the wheel. The unofficial usecase is what actually gets consumers enthusiastic, but the official usecase is what companies like Tesla cover their ass with.
The actual point of a Level-2 system (other than as a safety measure, e.g. wrt emergency braking) is that it provides driver assistance for things other than having to pay attention to the road & surroundings at all times - and there are plenty of such things that can meaningfully impact driver's comfort. That's all there is to it. Don't think "Autopilot"; think "Fly-by-wire".
Yeah that's nice and all, yet when you have Elon Musk promoting his cars by taking his hands off the steering wheel, it's pretty clear that Tesla's Level 2 system is being sold to consumers as "hands off".
Why are people assuming in this thread that Tesla is the only auto maker that's providing Level-2 driver assistance? This couldn't be farther from the truth.
The topic of this thread is Tesla, specifically Tesla's implementation of automation features. That is why I am talking about Tesla's promotion of their Level 2 system.
This is a very good point, and one I hadn't considered.
It's common knowledge that most people think they're better than average drivers, so we tend to compensate and believe we're no better than the statistical average driver. But yes indeed, most of us in fact are better than average drivers whenever we're doing our best to drive carefully.
In theory, you can take extra precautions sure, but will you take these precautions all the times?
Human nature says no: you're in a hurry, you've eaten too much, you have a cold, all these things reduce your ability to drive safely..
There's zero chance that they know it's safer per mile than humans. Incidents are so far in between you'd need way more more than what the paltry Tesla fleet is collecting before crash per mile could be accounted for with any meaningful accuracy
It is a garden-variety advanced-driver-assistance system (ADAS) same as other top-of-the-line cars have, and not even the most advanced on the market! To describe it as being anything close to "self-driving" is so implausibly charitable that it borders on being disingenuous.
Lots of other vehicles have traffic aware cruise control. Can you name a single non-Tesla that can automatically speed up / slow down to switch lanes and take on ramps / off ramps based on navigation?
There are lots of things wrong with auto-pilot, but it is far from "garden-variety".
So, their navigation subsystem can limit the cruise-control speed before an off-ramp/lane change/whatever? That's nice, but it's a gimmick. It's not meaningful driver assistance, let alone self-driving. Meanwhile, the newest Audi top-of-the-line car (already sporting one of the most advanced feature sets when it comes to driver assistance) will reportedly be able to "drive" itself in very slow-going, very heavy traffic, even if the driver momentarily stops paying attention. That's at least as good as what Tesla will be able to do in the same timeframe.
Teslas do what, exactly? As far as EAP goes, you're supposed to pay attention at all times - the system is not able to make up for even momentary distraction. This is where Audi is claiming to be able to do at least slightly better, in highly selective/favorable conditions. FSD is its own thing that's still far in the future, so I'm not sure how sensible it is to bring it up here.
What are you saying? Tesla does just fine in traffic, you hit a button on the steering wheel every minute or so to show you are paying attention to the road and that’s it. You are still looking at the road, the readout showing the mapping of what it sees to the real world.
The whole point of this discussion is that "Oh, it does great in practice" is a highly misleading metric - it tells us nothing about how the system might 'fail' in a worst-case scenario. That's the whole point of having these "levels" - and Tesla is still not claiming anything higher than Level-2 for their existing EAP.
Right, so you still sit in the driver seat watching the road. Still beats switching back and forth between gas and break, and constantly holding the wheel.
Cadillac Super Cruise is limited to select roads only, their site states 130,000 miles of mapped highways. The Tesla system, I am only referring to EAP, works on any road it can find lines. Having used it the hardest part wasn't in trusting to keep in the lane but stopping. However that part is true with a traffic aware cruise control system.
is it flawless, no, but it does work in conditions I didn't find fun driving in. An example was two lane highway, at night, in the rain, with enough jokers with badly aimed lights or not dimming their lights. It did very well and let me feel confident looking away from the road if the oncoming car's lights were too bright.
I did not buy the FSD suite, I don't have a desire for that level of autonomy and I am not confident anyone will pull it off soon. I mean I have seen examples where they map it all but that isn't the same.
I don't believe this is correct. If you want to change lanes, you engage the turn signal, Supercruise will show blue light. The blue light denotes Super cruise is paused while you change lanes. After you've changed lanes yourself, you wait for the light to glow blue again so Supercruise can resume.
Tesla will speed up or slow down and change lanes automatically. This is not the same. Also, Supercruise is only enabled in very limited circumstances. You can use autopilot anywhere even if it isn't officially recommended.
> Tesla will speed up or slow down and change lanes automatically.
You are still required to engage the turn signal; Tesla will speed up / slow down to execute the merge, eventually, and will steer the merge for you but does not make the decision to do so autonomously (though it'll recommend a new lane to you with a blue lane line on your dash).
