> Most people own more than one PC, though the concept of what a "computer" is has changed considerably. Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilities come in all sorts of unexpected shapes and sizes.
Doesn't seem like much of a prediction these days, but from the vocabulary of the past the iPad and smartwatch would qualify, and they weren't easy to predict at the time.
I remember telling my mum in the early 2000s that one day (I didn't realise quite how soon) all phones would just be touch screens. She didn't believe me, or thought she'd be dead before it happened. It is hard to imagine the future.
I'd say we're tracking behind on a lot of these but I don't think he's so far off (and it'd be interesting to check again in just a couple years). For instance:
> People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards.
In the parlance of the past, touch screens, virtual assistants and face unlock all qualify.
> Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person.
Our bar for a "simulated person" is quite high these days, but again look at it from the perspective of the past. I quite often have chats with services of varying sophistications that try and emulate a natural conversation. I'm not fooled, but that isn't the prediction.
> Pinhead-sized cameras are everywhere.
Quite literally. I have a couple looking at me right now.
> Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared.
Most of my peripherals actually are wireless. "Almost completely disappeared"? Sadly not. But we're probably talking years, and this was written twenty years ago.
> Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used.
> Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use.
Speak for themselves.
> Thin, lightweight, handheld displays with very high resolutions are the preferred means for viewing documents.
This one is interesting because again if you immerse yourself in the time it was written, paper was a very common occurrence on a work desk. Now? Rarely.
> Worldwide economic growth has continued. There has not been a global economic collapse.
Not as far off as it might seem.
> "Virtual sex"—in which two people are able to have sex with each other through virtual reality
Increasingly true. Check back in 12 months.
> Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate.
Oh.
I actually think that, all in all, and taken in the spirit of the time, these are surprisingly accurate. Many are of course way off, but I personally think they show a rare prescience.
> Most people own more than one PC, though the concept of what a "computer" is has changed considerably. Computers are no longer limited in design to laptops or CPUs contained in a large box connected to a monitor. Instead, devices with computer capabilities come in all sorts of unexpected shapes and sizes.
Doesn't seem like much of a prediction these days, but from the vocabulary of the past the iPad and smartwatch would qualify, and they weren't easy to predict at the time.
I remember telling my mum in the early 2000s that one day (I didn't realise quite how soon) all phones would just be touch screens. She didn't believe me, or thought she'd be dead before it happened. It is hard to imagine the future.
I'd say we're tracking behind on a lot of these but I don't think he's so far off (and it'd be interesting to check again in just a couple years). For instance:
> People communicate with their computers via two-way speech and gestures instead of with keyboards.
In the parlance of the past, touch screens, virtual assistants and face unlock all qualify.
> Most business transactions or information inquiries involve dealing with a simulated person.
Our bar for a "simulated person" is quite high these days, but again look at it from the perspective of the past. I quite often have chats with services of varying sophistications that try and emulate a natural conversation. I'm not fooled, but that isn't the prediction.
> Pinhead-sized cameras are everywhere.
Quite literally. I have a couple looking at me right now.
> Cables connecting computers and peripherals have almost completely disappeared.
Most of my peripherals actually are wireless. "Almost completely disappeared"? Sadly not. But we're probably talking years, and this was written twenty years ago.
> Rotating computer hard drives are no longer used. > Massively parallel neural nets and genetic algorithms are in wide use.
Speak for themselves.
> Thin, lightweight, handheld displays with very high resolutions are the preferred means for viewing documents.
This one is interesting because again if you immerse yourself in the time it was written, paper was a very common occurrence on a work desk. Now? Rarely.
> Worldwide economic growth has continued. There has not been a global economic collapse.
Not as far off as it might seem.
> "Virtual sex"—in which two people are able to have sex with each other through virtual reality
Increasingly true. Check back in 12 months.
> Three-dimensional nanotube lattices are the dominant computing substrate.
Oh.
I actually think that, all in all, and taken in the spirit of the time, these are surprisingly accurate. Many are of course way off, but I personally think they show a rare prescience.