> The benchmark global levelized cost of onshore wind sits even lower than solar, at $52/MWh, down 6% from BNEF’s 1H 2018 analysis, and driven by cheaper turbines and a stronger US dollar. This is, of course, the average cost, and is as cheap as $27/MWh in India and Texas. Further, in most locations across the United States, wind outcompetes combined-cycle gas plants (CCGT) supplied by shale gas, putting the lie to the idea that shale gas is the savior of America’s power reserves. Further, according to BNEF, “If the gas price rises above $3/MMBtu, our analysis suggests that new and existing CCGT are going to run the risk of becoming rapidly undercut by new solar and wind.”
My note: US Henry Hub natural gas has already been above $3/MMBtu for the last month, and the price momentum is trending upwards (to be expected with the winter season):
> Finally, and highlighting a growing trend in the energy sector, short-duration batteries are now the cheapest source of new fast-response and peaking capacity across the globe — except in the United States, where cheap gas gives peaker gas plants an edge. Further, as electric vehicle manufacturers ramp up, battery costs will only continue to fall and are set to decline by 66% by 2030, resulting in cheaper storage for the power sector. Further, batteries combined with solar PV or wind are becoming more common, and BNEF’s new analysis predicts that new-build solar and wind which are paired with four-hour battery storage systems can already be cost-competitive, without subsidy, as a source of dispatchable generation, when compared with new coal and gas plants in historically fossil fuel-intensive countries such as Australia and India.
> The benchmark global levelized cost of onshore wind sits even lower than solar, at $52/MWh, down 6% from BNEF’s 1H 2018 analysis, and driven by cheaper turbines and a stronger US dollar. This is, of course, the average cost, and is as cheap as $27/MWh in India and Texas. Further, in most locations across the United States, wind outcompetes combined-cycle gas plants (CCGT) supplied by shale gas, putting the lie to the idea that shale gas is the savior of America’s power reserves. Further, according to BNEF, “If the gas price rises above $3/MMBtu, our analysis suggests that new and existing CCGT are going to run the risk of becoming rapidly undercut by new solar and wind.”
My note: US Henry Hub natural gas has already been above $3/MMBtu for the last month, and the price momentum is trending upwards (to be expected with the winter season):
https://www.eia.gov/dnav/ng/hist/rngwhhdM.htm
> Finally, and highlighting a growing trend in the energy sector, short-duration batteries are now the cheapest source of new fast-response and peaking capacity across the globe — except in the United States, where cheap gas gives peaker gas plants an edge. Further, as electric vehicle manufacturers ramp up, battery costs will only continue to fall and are set to decline by 66% by 2030, resulting in cheaper storage for the power sector. Further, batteries combined with solar PV or wind are becoming more common, and BNEF’s new analysis predicts that new-build solar and wind which are paired with four-hour battery storage systems can already be cost-competitive, without subsidy, as a source of dispatchable generation, when compared with new coal and gas plants in historically fossil fuel-intensive countries such as Australia and India.